Right Place, Right Time, How High Is Up
Find emerging leaders by estimating how large an uncertain market could become
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 97%
Landis starts with a structural technology trend and asks whether a company occupies the right position at the right moment. Instead of treating a spreadsheet forecast as reliable, he explores how large the underlying market could plausibly become and whether the company can capture a meaningful share. The strongest candidates are not necessarily tiny startups, but they remain unfamiliar enough that widespread investor recognition has not yet inflated expectations. Research establishes the company’s technical and competitive credibility; imagination estimates the market’s possible upper bound. Returns may arrive later, when other investors understand and adopt the thesis. The mechanism therefore runs from emerging trend, to positioned company, to informed upside estimate, to patient ownership, and finally to broader recognition.
Origin
Kevin Landis developed this approach through engineering, technology market research, operating experience, and decades of investing in public and private technology companies. Extracted from Masters in Business.
Core principles
- 01Seek markets whose eventual size remains uncertain
- 02Prefer emerging leaders over already-discovered giants
- 03Judge a company within the expansion of its surrounding market
- 04Accept uncertainty instead of disguising it with precise forecasts
- 05Let adoption and investor recognition create returns over time
How to run it
- 1
Locate structural change
Find a technology, business model, or infrastructure shift that could expand for years rather than produce a temporary sales spike.
Pro tip Look for markets where informed observers still disagree substantially about eventual size.
Watch out Do not confuse publicity or speculative excitement with durable structural change.
- 2
Find the positioned company
Identify companies whose technology, partnerships, or ecosystem role place them directly in the path of that change.
Pro tip A neutral supplier serving several competing winners can offer cleaner exposure than choosing one end-product brand.
Watch out A promising market cannot rescue a company with weak execution or no defensible position.
- 3
Verify the trajectory
Study the company’s technical capability, management, customers, and competitive progress to determine whether it is on the right track.
Pro tip Use industry expertise and informed opinions alongside financial statements.
Watch out Do not use an exciting total addressable market as a substitute for company-level diligence.
- 4
Ask how high is up
Estimate a range of plausible outcomes for the market and the company rather than forcing a single precise forecast.
Pro tip Consider second-order applications that could expand demand beyond the market’s current definition.
Watch out Uncertainty should widen the outcome range, not justify an unlimited valuation.
- 5
Buy before familiarity
Invest when the evidence is persuasive but the company has not yet become a widely recognized portfolio staple.
Pro tip Treat unfamiliarity as a possible source of opportunity after completing the homework.
Watch out Being obscure is not itself evidence that a company is undervalued.
- 6
Wait for recognition
Give adoption, execution, and broader investor understanding time to validate the thesis.
Pro tip Track the original operating thesis rather than reacting to every short-term price move.
Watch out Patience is appropriate only while the evidence continues to support the thesis.
In the wild
An investor sees electric vehicles expanding but cannot confidently select the eventual winning brand. Research identifies a specialist power-electronics supplier whose material technology improves efficiency across several manufacturers. The supplier is technically credible, its market capitalization remains moderate, and demand could rise with the whole category. The investor gains exposure to the structural wave without betting everything on one vehicle maker.
→ The portfolio participates in category growth through an enabling technology with multiple potential customers.
A company operates in a small-satellite market for which no dependable historical demand model exists. Instead of rejecting the opportunity because forecasts are uncertain, the investor maps potential communications, imaging, climate, and logistics uses. Technical diligence confirms that the company is positioned to serve several applications, supporting a measured investment before the market becomes widely understood.
→ The investor acquires an informed position while the market’s possible scale remains underappreciated.
Common mistakes
Treating the spreadsheet as certainty
Precise forecasts can create false confidence when the market itself is still forming. Use ranges and explicit assumptions instead.
Buying only familiar giants
Familiarity can feel like understanding, but already-discovered companies may offer less room for recognition-driven upside.
Ignoring company execution
A large future market does not guarantee that a particular company will capture it. Verify its position and trajectory independently.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for patient investors researching unfamiliar companies in young, fast-changing markets.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for investors requiring precise near-term forecasts, low volatility, or immediately validated valuations.
From the transcript
“Sometimes it's about leaning back in your chair and staring up the ceiling and asking yourself, just how big could this market become?”
“Where when you see a company that's in the right place at the right time, they're on the right track, then the question is just…”
“But you've got to be comfortable that you've done your homework and it's not a household name.”
From the episode
Kevin Landis on Technology Investments (Podcast)
Kevin Landis