PIMCO Secular Forum Process
Use outside perspectives to build a three-to-five-year investment worldview
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 94%
The Secular Forum is a recurring institutional process for converting diverse outside perspectives into a shared long-term investment thesis. PIMCO gathers external speakers for three dedicated days with the firm's investors and executives, focusing discussion on how the global economy may evolve over the next three to five years. Participants identify structural forces—such as changing growth trends, monetary regimes, fiscal policy, or market architecture—and turn them into named themes that can guide investment decisions. The value comes less from predicting an exact future than from establishing common assumptions, plausible scenarios, and risks across the organization. Repeating the exercise annually lets the firm challenge stale beliefs, incorporate new evidence, and coordinate portfolio thinking around a disciplined horizon beyond routine market noise.
Origin
PIMCO has conducted its Secular Forum for decades as an integral part of its investment process. Clarida began overseeing the annual process in 2014 and linked themes such as the New Normal and New Neutral to its discussions.
Core principles
- 01Long-horizon strategy requires separation from daily market noise
- 02Outside speakers challenge institutional assumptions
- 03A shared macro thesis coordinates investment decisions
- 04Structural themes matter more than precise point forecasts
How to run it
- 1
Set the secular horizon
Frame the exercise around the next three to five years so participants focus on structural developments rather than near-term market fluctuations.
Pro tip State explicitly which decisions the resulting worldview must inform.
Watch out Allowing daily market commentary to dominate will turn the forum into a tactical meeting.
- 2
Recruit outside perspectives
Bring in external speakers who can challenge internal assumptions about economics, policy, technology, and geopolitical change.
Pro tip Select speakers with genuinely different disciplines and viewpoints.
Watch out A panel of like-minded experts will reinforce consensus instead of testing it.
- 3
Create protected discussion time
Dedicate a concentrated multi-day period for investors and executives to examine the evidence together.
Pro tip Circulate key questions and baseline assumptions before the event.
Watch out Do not bury the exercise inside ordinary operating meetings.
- 4
Extract structural themes
Identify the few recurring forces that could materially shape the global economy and markets across the chosen horizon.
Pro tip Give memorable names to themes so they can travel through the organization.
Watch out Avoid themes that are merely slogans without an economic mechanism.
- 5
Translate themes into assumptions
Connect each theme to expected growth, inflation, policy, risk premiums, and asset behavior.
Pro tip Record both the central thesis and conditions that would invalidate it.
Watch out A compelling macro narrative is useless unless it changes decision inputs.
- 6
Revisit annually
Repeat the process to test the existing worldview against new evidence and emerging structural changes.
Pro tip Begin each new forum with a candid review of the prior thesis.
Watch out Do not preserve a thesis simply because portfolios were built around it.
In the wild
Clarida brought academic work suggesting that the neutral policy rate had declined into PIMCO's internal discussions. The thesis became part of the firm's Secular Forum process and influenced how it invested over the following years.
→ A structural monetary-policy insight became a shared portfolio assumption.
A diversified financial firm could invite demographers, technologists, policymakers, and customers to examine the next three years. Executives would translate the resulting themes into scenarios for demand, financing costs, and operational risk, then review those assumptions annually.
→ Leadership gains a common, revisable basis for capital allocation.
Common mistakes
Confusing secular and tactical horizons
Short-term forecasts crowd out the structural questions that the process is designed to address.
Inviting only friendly experts
Speakers who share the firm's assumptions provide validation rather than useful challenge.
Stopping at discussion
Themes must be translated into investment assumptions and decisions to create value.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for investment firms and strategy teams making decisions whose consequences span several years.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for organizations seeking only tactical trade ideas or immediate market forecasts.
From the transcript
“We bring an outside speakers three days a year just for the investors and the executives of the firm.”
“To think about what the global economy is going to look like over the next three or five years.”
“Those are both themes that emerged from our Secontar Forum process”
From the episode
Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy
Richard Clarida