Crisis Journal Perspective Practice
Record crises in real time, then revisit them when markets are calm
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
The practice creates a personal archive of how crises actually feel while they unfold. During a disruption, the investor records events, fears, expectations, and impulses without relying on sanitized hindsight. After the crisis, those entries are compared with the eventual outcome. When another shock arrives, the archive supplies emotionally credible evidence that earlier emergencies also felt unprecedented and interminable. The investor combines this personal record with market history and current data before altering a portfolio. The mechanism does not assume every crisis will resolve quickly; instead, it counters recency bias, preserves awareness of uncertainty, and helps distinguish legitimate changes in financial needs from fear-driven reactions to headlines.
Origin
Extracted from Masters in Business, where Sam Row described keeping a journal during COVID and revisiting crisis memories when conditions are calm.
Core principles
- 01Crises feel permanent while they are unfolding
- 02Real-time notes preserve emotions that hindsight erases
- 03Calm periods are best for studying previous disruptions
- 04Historical perspective can counter impulsive investment decisions
How to run it
- 1
Open a crisis record
Create a dated journal when a major market or geopolitical disruption begins. Describe the situation using information available at that moment.
Pro tip Use the same template for every crisis so entries are easy to compare.
Watch out Do not rewrite earlier entries after the outcome becomes known.
- 2
Capture your emotional forecast
Write down what you fear will happen, how long you expect the disruption to last, and which portfolio action feels most compelling.
Pro tip Include confidence levels for your predictions.
Watch out Separate verified facts from assumptions and emotional reactions.
- 3
Track the disruption over time
Add brief entries as events, markets, and your expectations change. Record how persistent uncertainty affects your judgment.
Pro tip A short regular entry is more useful than one polished retrospective.
Watch out Avoid turning constant news monitoring into compulsive trading.
- 4
Review after conditions stabilize
Compare your contemporaneous expectations with the eventual economic and market outcomes. Identify which fears, forecasts, and impulses proved accurate or misleading.
Pro tip Conduct this review during a calm period rather than waiting for the next panic.
Watch out Do not conclude that every future crisis will follow the same timeline.
- 5
Consult the archive before acting
During the next crisis, read previous entries and study relevant historical data before changing a long-term allocation. Ask whether your goals or time horizon changed, rather than reacting solely to headlines.
Pro tip Pair the journal with a written investment policy or rebalancing rule.
Watch out Perspective should not prevent action when your actual financial circumstances have changed.
In the wild
An investor feels compelled to sell after a military escalation and a sudden market decline. Before acting, she reads entries written during COVID that predicted permanent office closures, prolonged economic paralysis, and years of market weakness. She compares those fears with subsequent outcomes, checks her unchanged ten-year horizon, and follows her existing rebalancing policy instead of liquidating equities.
→ The investor replaces an impulsive decision with a documented, policy-based response.
Common mistakes
Writing only after the recovery
A retrospective account cannot faithfully preserve the uncertainty and emotional intensity that influence decisions during a crisis.
Treating history as an exact timetable
Historical averages describe a range of outcomes; they do not guarantee that the next market bottom will arrive on schedule.
Using perspective to dismiss real risks
The practice should reduce panic, not encourage investors to ignore changing financial needs or material developments.
Is it for you?
Best for
Long-term investors who struggle to maintain perspective amid alarming headlines and market volatility.
Not ideal for
Short-term traders whose strategies require rapid responses to changing geopolitical information.
From the transcript
“Me personally, I like to keep a journal when bad things happen.”
“But when things are calm, that's probably actually the best time to go back and remember things”
“reading my own memories or my own real time accounts of something like COVID reminded me that it always feels like the end of the…”
From the episode
At The Money: Navigating War, Tariffs and Geopolitics