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William D. Cohan03 February 2023

William D. Cohan on the Rise and Fall of GE

2Frameworks
12Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster18:16

Thomas Edison Did Not Create GE the Way Its Myth Suggests

Cohan's research found that General Electric emerged from the merger of Edison General Electric and Thomson-Houston, despite Edison's opposition. Charles Coffin and financial backers including J.P. Morgan were more central to forming and running the resulting company.

  • Edison developed the light bulb but opposed the GE merger
  • Thomson-Houston was run more profitably by Charles Coffin
  • J.P. Morgan helped drive the combination
  • GE also pioneered generation and distribution infrastructure

“the myth is that this GE was started founded by Thomas Edison.”

William D. Cohan · 19:25

“Thomas Edison was completely against the merger of what became GE.”

William D. Cohan · 23:05
#general electric#thomas edison#electrification#corporate history

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take1:03:29

Was GE Managing Assets or Obscuring Its True Earnings?

Ritholtz and Cohan debate whether GE's quarterly asset sales were legitimate management or a way to manufacture smooth earnings. Cohan argues that monetizing owned assets could fulfill valid commitments, while Ritholtz points to acquisitions, special charges, and poor comparability as evidence of persistent opacity.

  • GE Capital held many assets that could be sold within a quarter
  • Welch consistently delivered promised earnings
  • Frequent transactions made period-to-period comparisons difficult
  • Complexity can be economically real while still reducing transparency

“The financial crisis of two thousand eight, where everybody was focused on Wall Street banks and even the car companies, the dirty little secret of…”

William D. Cohan · 1:04:08
#earnings#accounting#ge capital#transparency

Explainer· 4

Explainer03:17

How GE Capital Turned a Triple-A Rating Into a Profit Engine

GE Capital evolved from financing appliance purchases into a vast, largely unregulated financial institution. Its central advantage was GE's triple-A rating, which allowed it to borrow cheaply and lend at higher rates across numerous business lines.

  • GE Capital began as customer financing during the Depression
  • GE's triple-A rating lowered its borrowing costs
  • The company expanded into leveraged buyouts and many other financial businesses
  • GE Capital eventually supplied a large share of the parent's profits

“they were able to borrow very cheap and then lend out expensively”

William D. Cohan · 04:02

“it was easier to make money from money than from making selling widgets”

William D. Cohan · 09:36
#ge capital#credit#leverage#financial engineering
Explainer12:58

How Jack Welch Built an Imperial CEO Reputation

Welch combined sustained earnings performance with unusual influence over analysts, media, and shareholders. Industrial analysts often struggled to understand GE Capital, while Welch's charisma and GE's ownership of major media assets strengthened the company's public narrative.

  • Industrial analysts did not fully understand GE Capital
  • GE repeatedly met or exceeded quarterly estimates
  • Welch was an unusually magnetic television personality
  • GE's market prestige reinforced Welch's authority

“Jack had Wall Street research analysts eating out of the palm of his hand.”

William D. Cohan · 13:08

“he became sort of an imperial CEO.”

William D. Cohan · 17:24
#jack welch#media#analysts#corporate leadership
Explainer1:21:08

How Morgan Stanley Outgrew Goldman Through Diversification

Goldman Sachs retained prestige and advisory influence but struggled to diversify beyond volatile investment banking and trading. Morgan Stanley built larger wealth-management and asset-management businesses, producing steadier fee income and earning a higher market valuation.

  • Goldman remained prestigious and influential in government
  • Morgan Stanley diversified into steadier fee businesses
  • Goldman's own acquisitions often underperformed
  • Goldman's consumer-banking push was costly and unrewarding

“Morgan Stanley has been much more successful at doing deals and diversifying its business away from the volatile investment, banking and trading businesses two more…”

William D. Cohan · 1:23:17

“Goldman has not diversified well or easily.”

William D. Cohan · 1:24:01
#goldman sachs#morgan stanley#banking#diversification
Explainer1:25:46

Trump Improved His Business Model by Selling the Brand

Cohan argues that Donald Trump became financially smarter when he stopped putting as much of his own capital into ventures and instead licensed his name for fees. The model converted recognition from The Apprentice and other publicity into income while shifting much of the underlying financial risk to others.

  • Earlier ventures exposed Trump's own capital to losses
  • Licensing generated fees without equivalent asset risk
  • Brand recognition became the principal commercial asset
  • Wall Street still distrusted him because of unpaid obligations and creditor losses

“he had evolved as a businessman where instead of putting his own money at risk and when losing it oftentimes you know, Trump Air and…”

William D. Cohan · 1:29:07

“much better business model, much better business model.”

William D. Cohan · 1:29:25
#donald trump#branding#licensing#business model

Story· 4

Story26:02

The Electrical Conspiracy That Showed Why Competition Matters

GE, Westinghouse, and other equipment makers participated in a large price-fixing conspiracy affecting critical electrical infrastructure. When their arrangements broke down, fierce price competition improved access and exposed the consumer cost of collusion.

  • Manufacturers coordinated bids and prices
  • The conduct was illegal, unethical, and economically significant
  • Participants sometimes cheated within the cartel
  • Competition lowered prices and expanded market penetration

“It was incredibly unethical, immoral, illegal.”

William D. Cohan · 27:20

“competition is important, and collusion really is not great and is illegal.”

William D. Cohan · 28:10
#antitrust#collusion#competition#general electric
Story30:51

GE Was Forced to Create RCA, Divest It, Then Bought It Back

After World War I, the US government blocked GE from selling strategically important radio technology to British-owned Marconi interests. GE was pushed to create RCA, later forced to divest it on antitrust grounds, and then reacquired it under Jack Welch in 1986.

  • GE developed important wartime radio technology
  • The Wilson administration blocked its transfer to British interests
  • Government pressure helped create RCA inside GE
  • Welch's celebrated RCA acquisition restored a business GE had once owned

“essentially forced g E to create what became our c A”

William D. Cohan · 31:38

“Jack was just buying back what had already owned.”

William D. Cohan · 33:16
#rca#radio#antitrust#m&a
Story36:39

Jack Welch Admitted His Succession Choice Damaged His Legacy

In Cohan's first substantive interview with Welch, the former CEO immediately disavowed his selection of Jeff Immelt. Welch accepted personal responsibility and worried that the failed succession would redefine his legacy.

  • Welch personally selected Immelt
  • He later said the succession process was a mistake
  • The admission convinced Cohan that the GE story had unusual depth
  • GE produced many outside CEOs despite its troubled internal succession

“I screwed it up. And this is on me, and this is going to affect my legacy.”

Jack Welch, quoted by William D. Cohan · 41:39

“At that moment, I kind of knew I was onto something quite special.”

William D. Cohan · 41:45
#succession#jack welch#jeff immelt#leadership
Story1:43:33

A Quotron Display Error Nearly Created a $120,000 Berkshire Trade

As a young Lazard associate, Cohan mistook a four-digit Quotron display for Berkshire Hathaway's full share price and ordered ten shares. The actual cost was $120,000, so he retained two shares, sold the other eight, and later regretted not finding a way to keep the entire position.

  • The terminal displayed only four price spaces
  • Cohan thought each share cost $1,200 instead of $12,000
  • The desk unwound eight shares without lasting harm
  • The two retained shares later became extraordinarily valuable

“The quotron only went to four spaces. It's twelve thousand.”

William D. Cohan · 1:45:53

“Right, the check for the whole hundred twenty thousand would have been my advice.”

William D. Cohan · 1:46:44
#berkshire hathaway#investing#quotron#mistakes

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway05:00

Why Lazard's Lack of Capital Became a Strategic Advantage

Lazard won major advisory assignments through ideas, reputation, and intellectual talent rather than a large balance sheet. Cohan contrasts that discipline with capital-rich institutions whose access to money made it easier to take foolish risks.

  • Lazard operated without a significant balance sheet
  • Ideas and reputation placed it at the center of major deals
  • Capital scarcity forced harder choices
  • Limited balance-sheet exposure helped it avoid financial-crisis losses

“Lazard had no capital, no capital, but it got in the middle of deals.”

William D. Cohan · 06:25

“not having capital forced them to make tougher choices”

William D. Cohan · 07:54
#lazard#investment banking#capital allocation#risk
Takeaway1:16:28

Why Inviting an Activist Investor Inside Can Backfire

Jeff Immelt expected Trian Partners to be a friendly shareholder that would validate his strategy, but the relationship contributed to leadership changes at GE. Cohan sees the same structural risk in Bob Iger's dealings with Nelson Peltz: an activist's incentives remain activist incentives regardless of personal rapport.

  • Immelt invited Trian into GE expecting a sympathetic partner
  • Support depended on performance and strategic compliance
  • Trian helped drive leadership changes at GE
  • Personal relationships do not neutralize an activist's economic incentives

“the smiling crocodile and Nelson Pelt's Bard's Tea and basically was responsible for Jeff Mo being fired.”

William D. Cohan · 1:18:56

“why does scorpions Stingbob? Because that's what they do, right.”

William D. Cohan · 1:19:49
#activism#trian#nelson peltz#governance