Virtual meetings made IPO marketing substantially more efficient without replacing the traditional IPO as the dominant route. Carmen sees direct listings as an alternative but argues that SPACs suit only narrow situations and are unlikely to regain their former prominence.

Roadshows now rely heavily on Zoom
Virtual meetings increase geographic reach and efficiency
Most companies still use conventional IPOs
Carmen views the SPAC boom as largely finished

“Well, the biggest difference is it's now zoom, zoom and zoom.”
Michael Carmen · 32:55

“So I don't see SPACs coming back.”
Michael Carmen · 33:35

#ipos#spacs#direct listings#roadshows

Explainer· 3

Explainer15:57

Why Growth Companies Now Stay Private Longer

Sarbanes-Oxley increased the cost and burden of becoming public, while abundant private capital made waiting possible. Carmen adds that private boards can devote far more attention to long-term strategy instead of managing quarterly earnings expectations.

Regulatory costs discouraged smaller IPOs
More capital became available at every venture stage
Private boards can prioritize strategy over quarterly results
Longer private periods can produce stronger companies

“when you're private, you can think more strategically.”
Michael Carmen · 16:32

“everything I just said would mean nothing if there wasn't capital to deploy into these businesses.”
Michael Carmen · 18:24

#private markets#regulation#venture capital#strategy

Explainer28:23

Why Bear Markets Shut the IPO Window

IPOs depend on public investors being willing to evaluate new companies. When existing holdings are falling sharply, portfolio managers focus on deciding what to retain or sell rather than studying unfamiliar issuers, causing new listings to stop.

The IPO market takes its cue from public equities
Growth-stock losses were especially severe in 2022
Portfolio triage crowds out research on new issuers
Historically, closures often last about a year but can persist longer

“The last thing you want to do when you have fifty fires in your portfolio is to look at a new idea.”
Michael Carmen · 29:02

“And so that is why the IPO market shuts down in a bear market.”
Michael Carmen · 29:09

#ipos#bear markets#public markets

Explainer45:53

Why Early-Stage Investors Drive Late-Stage Deal Flow

Carmen says the ability to see opportunities is foundational because an investor cannot select deals that never enter the pipeline. Wellington cultivates hundreds of seed and early-stage investors who provide warm introductions and board-level credibility when portfolio companies later raise large rounds.

Deal access precedes investment selection
The team spends substantial time sourcing
Warm introductions come from cultivated early-stage networks
Existing board relationships help Wellington demonstrate its value

“the old adage is you don't see it, you can't do it”
Michael Carmen · 46:02

“Our biggest source of deals are from our network of early stage investors that we have cultivated over the last decade”
Michael Carmen · 46:30

#deal flow#networks#sourcing#venture capital

Story· 2

Story01:49

How Wellington Survived Three Generations of Partnership Change

Wellington moved from public ownership to a 29-partner private firm in 1979 and later expanded to nearly 200 partners. Carmen credits dispersed ownership with making several generational transitions easier than they typically are in investment firms.

Wellington began in 1928
The firm became a partnership in 1979
Dispersed ownership eased leadership transitions
The platform expanded from equities into fixed income, hedge funds, and private markets

“We now have almost two hundred partners and we've gone through probably about three generations of partnership change, which is very unusual.”
Michael Carmen · 02:04

#wellington#partnerships#asset management

Story22:37

Coupang Slowed Growth to Fix Logistics—Then Reaccelerated

Coupang's growth fell sharply while it built the infrastructure needed to move from multi-day delivery toward one-day and hourly delivery. The company came close to exhausting its capital, but the logistics reset enabled renewed growth and an eventual public listing.

Growth fell from roughly 100% to 20%
Delivery improvements required major infrastructure
The company temporarily prioritized logistics over growth
A new financing round helped it survive and reaccelerate

“at one point they had to really slow down growth to make sure they got that right. And once they got it right, they were…”
Michael Carmen · 24:03

#coupang#logistics#ecommerce#turnarounds

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway44:24

When Insiders Will Not Invest, Wellington Usually Walks Away

Wellington prefers rounds where existing investors take their pro rata allocation or more. Insider nonparticipation or selling can reveal negative private information, although Wellington still performs its own diligence rather than outsourcing conviction to co-investors.

Existing investors possess valuable private information
Pro rata or super-pro-rata participation is a positive signal
Insider selling changes the character of a round
Each investment decision is still made independently

“If all the insiders aren't playing, or an insider is selling, then we generally don't want to.”
Michael Carmen · 44:43

“job one is making is figuring out for ourselves independently if we think this would be a good idea”
Michael Carmen · 45:14

#insiders#deal signals#venture capital

Takeaway54:11

Choose an Investment Style That Fits Your Personality

Finance graduates now face a much broader range of paths than earlier generations did. Carmen recommends matching the required decision speed, time horizon, and growth-or-value orientation to one's genuine interests and temperament.

Modern finance offers many distinct career paths
Hedge funds may require frequent short-term decisions
Other strategies reward longer time horizons
Investment style should fit personality and passion

“figure out where your passion is, figure out what your investment style and what works for you.”
Michael Carmen · 54:34

“head towards the direction that really fits your personality.”
Michael Carmen · 54:54

#careers#investing#finance#self-knowledge

Takeaway55:00

Major Technology Trends Are Often Mispriced Across Time

Carmen recalls recognizing laptops and smartphones as category-forming products before their full impact became obvious. He argues that investors often overestimate adoption in the short run while underestimating the scale of long-term change, creating opportunities around genuine inflection points.

New products can signal the creation of an entire market
Early excitement may outrun near-term adoption
Long-term consequences can exceed initial expectations
Growth investing rewards identifying inflection points ahead of consensus

“sometimes these trends are overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term”
Michael Carmen · 56:02

“That's what I always loved about investing, is being ahead of the crowd and trying to figure out where the puck is going to go…”
Michael Carmen · 56:10

#technology#trends#growth investing#inflection points

Frameworks in this episode

Fat-Pitch Late-Stage Underwriting

Late-Stage Finishing School

Qualitative-Quantitative Investment Match

Insights & moments

◆Hot Take· 1

The IPO Roadshow Moved to Zoom, but SPACs May Not Return

✶Explainer· 3