Visitor Market Share Calculation
Estimate reachable demand before investing in a public destination
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 7
- Confidence
- 99%
The visitor market share calculation estimates how many people a proposed public space can realistically attract. First, planners establish a catchment radius based on actual local walking behavior; a pedestrian city may support a much wider radius than a car-oriented one. They then inventory nearby offices, residences, hotels, shops, museums, and other audience sources and estimate how many people are present at relevant times. A conservative capture rate is applied, benchmarked against proven spaces such as Bryant Park, where even strong performance represented only a small percentage of the surrounding population. The estimate disciplines attendance expectations and exposes sites where insufficient density makes investment futile. Once a credible target is established, planners select activities capable of attracting that share and build the operating budget and physical plan around it.
Origin
Biederman created the calculation after disagreeing with Eli Broad's optimistic assumptions about attendance around Grand Avenue in Los Angeles. He wanted a systematic way to demonstrate realistic demand to sophisticated clients. Extracted from Masters in Business.
Core principles
- 01Use realistic walking behavior to define the market
- 02Count nearby audience sources rather than relying on civic optimism
- 03Expect only a small share of reachable people to visit
- 04Translate the demand estimate into an activity plan
- 05Reject projects where density cannot support repeat use
How to run it
- 1
Define the catchment
Choose a realistic walking distance based on pedestrian behavior, street conditions, climate, and transportation patterns in the city.
Pro tip Use observation or mobility data to distinguish a walkable downtown from a car-oriented district.
Watch out A generic radius will overstate demand in places where people rarely walk.
- 2
Inventory audience generators
Count nearby offices, residences, hotels, retail locations, museums, schools, and other sources of potential visitors.
Pro tip Separate audiences by their likely availability, such as lunch, evening, weekend, or tourist hours.
Watch out Do not count the same population repeatedly across overlapping sources.
- 3
Estimate available people
Calculate how many people are plausibly present within the catchment during each target period. Remove those who are absent, occupied, or otherwise unavailable.
Pro tip Use ranges when source data is uncertain.
Watch out Total building capacity is not the same as available foot traffic.
- 4
Apply a conservative capture rate
Estimate the percentage who could realistically enter the space, using mature comparable destinations as an upper-bound benchmark.
Pro tip Model several scenarios, with the proven benchmark as a ceiling rather than a starting promise.
Watch out Do not assume a new destination will immediately outperform an established one.
- 5
Test site viability
Compare the projected attendance with the operating costs, safety needs, and minimum activity levels required for success.
Pro tip Resize the plan if the audience can support a useful space but not the original ambition.
Watch out A spectacular design cannot manufacture daily density where none exists.
- 6
Choose the demand drivers
Identify specific programs and amenities that could persuade the projected visitors to attend during each weak period.
Pro tip Connect every proposed activity to an audience source and time slot.
Watch out A list of fashionable amenities is not evidence that local people will use them.
- 7
Budget before designing
Construct the operating and capital budgets from the feasible attendance and program plan. Only then commission the physical design.
Pro tip Include recurring operating costs, not merely construction expenses.
Watch out Do not let sunk design costs pressure stakeholders into an infeasible project.
In the wild
Biederman estimated that approximately four percent of the people in Bryant Park's surrounding area were actually in the park at lunchtime. The other 96 percent might be traveling, attending meetings, eating elsewhere, or otherwise unavailable despite being geographically nearby.
→ The benchmark gave clients a realistic ceiling for strong public-space performance rather than allowing assumptions of ten percent or more.
A planner maps a proposed suburban plaza and finds few residences or workplaces within the short distance people will walk. Even an optimistic capture rate cannot produce enough daily users to animate the site or support its operating budget.
→ The sponsor scales the proposal down instead of funding an expensive but chronically empty destination.
Common mistakes
Using an unrealistic walking radius
Applying a pedestrian-city radius to a car-oriented location inflates the addressable audience. Walking distance must reflect local behavior.
Confusing presence with availability
People located nearby may be traveling, working through lunch, or engaged elsewhere. Discount the total population before estimating capture.
Treating the benchmark as a guarantee
An established destination's market share represents mature execution, not an automatic result for a new project. Ramp-up and execution risk must remain explicit.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for planners evaluating parks, plazas, cultural districts, and other destinations whose success depends on recurring nearby foot traffic.
Not ideal for
It is less useful for singular attractions designed primarily for infrequent regional or international tourism.
From the transcript
“So we created something called a visitor market share calculation.”
“We go out depending on the walking distance of each city.”
“You're not going to get higher than four percent.”
From the episode
Interview With Dan Biederman: Masters in Business (Audio)
Dan Biederman