Two-Factor Trend Sustainability Test
Separate durable demand from fads using trend alignment and adopter breadth
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 97%
The test starts after social listening, search data, or sales data reveals that a product is gaining attention. Rather than treating momentum as proof, the analyst examines two factors. First, the product must align with a durable underlying trend such as health and wellness rather than work against it. Second, adoption should spread beyond coastal novelty seekers or other consumers who routinely try everything new and reach more mainstream buyers. A product that satisfies both conditions has structural support and broader behavioral validation. One that lacks either condition remains a speculative fad. The framework converts noisy popularity signals into a repeatable strategic judgment for deciding which opportunities deserve deeper investigation, product development, or capital.
Origin
Extracted from Masters in Business as Pedro Earp explained how AB InBev distinguishes sustainable beverage trends from short-lived fads.
Core principles
- 01Early growth alone does not prove durability
- 02Durable products align with long-term behavioral trends
- 03Mainstream adoption is stronger evidence than novelty-seeker adoption
- 04Investigate the drivers beneath visible demand
How to run it
- 1
Detect the emerging signal
Use social listening, search trends, and granular market data to identify products or behaviors gaining attention.
Pro tip Treat this stage as detection rather than validation.
Watch out A rising chart does not establish why demand is rising.
- 2
Identify durable drivers
List the long-term consumer trends relevant to the category, such as wellness, convenience, variety, or affordability.
Pro tip Use trends that have persisted across multiple product cycles.
Watch out Do not invent a macro trend merely to justify the product.
- 3
Test strategic alignment
Determine whether the product reinforces or contradicts those durable trends. Strong alignment gives current demand a plausible mechanism for continuing.
Pro tip Evaluate the complete proposition, including ingredients, usage occasion, and positioning.
Watch out A product may offer one desirable feature while conflicting with a stronger trend.
- 4
Profile early adopters
Identify whether adoption is concentrated among habitual novelty seekers or spreading to mainstream consumers.
Pro tip Compare adopter behavior across regions and demographic groups.
Watch out Enthusiasm in an experimental niche can exaggerate the addressable market.
- 5
Classify and investigate
Treat aligned products with mainstream adoption as potentially sustainable and investigate them further. Keep weak or mixed signals in an exploratory portfolio.
Pro tip Update the classification as new adoption data arrives.
Watch out The test reduces uncertainty but does not guarantee commercial success.
In the wild
Pedro contrasts earlier hard sodas and flavored drinks, which carried substantial sugar and calories, with hard seltzer. Both offered flavor and variety, but hard seltzer also aligned with the longer-term health-and-wellness trend.
→ Hard seltzer presented a stronger case for sustainable growth rather than temporary novelty.
A fictional beverage first gains attention among trend-seeking consumers on the coasts. The innovation team withholds a major launch until repeat purchases appear among mainstream buyers in several regions.
→ Broader adoption provides stronger evidence that the category can persist beyond its novelty phase.
Common mistakes
Confusing visibility with durability
Social and search momentum show that something is emerging, not that it will remain important.
Ignoring the underlying trend
A popular product may fade if its ingredients, price, or usage conflict with stronger long-term preferences.
Overweighting novelty seekers
Consumers who routinely try new products are weak evidence of eventual mass adoption.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for innovation, investment, and portfolio teams evaluating newly popular consumer products.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for products with too little adoption data to assess either underlying alignment or adopter breadth.
From the transcript
“in our experience that are two factors that have been you know, that have been separating the stats from the from the things that are…”
“One of them is how this new product is really aligned with long term trends.”
“But when you see consumers that are more mainstream, you know, consumers mass consumers that there's start adopting, then you you have a heart. You…”
From the episode
Pedro Earp on the Business of Beer (Podcast)
Pedro Earp