Non-Obvious Opportunity Screen
Find outlier returns by searching where capital and insight are scarce
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 95%
The Non-Obvious Opportunity Screen searches for mismatches between real customer demand and the capital market’s attention. First, identify a sector, geography, customer group, or founder profile that conventional investors systematically overlook. Then determine whether the neglect reflects genuine weakness or merely unfamiliarity and network bias. Validate the underlying need through customers and domain experts, assess whether the founders possess authentic access or insight, and compare the prospective valuation with crowded alternatives. The resulting thesis should explain both why the opportunity is commercially attractive and why other investors have missed it. This mechanism turns diversity, geography, and specialized experience into testable sources of competitive advantage rather than treating them as impact labels alone.
Origin
Extracted from Masters in Business, where Soraya Darabi described TMV's approach to non-obvious founders, underserved markets, and geographically differentiated seed investments.
Core principles
- 01Contrarian insight creates asymmetric upside when correct.
- 02Undercapitalized markets can hide strong commercial demand.
- 03Founder diversity can be an operating advantage rather than a charitable consideration.
- 04Local knowledge can reveal customer needs outsiders overlook.
- 05Less competitive geographies can offer better prices and ownership.
How to run it
- 1
Locate neglected territory
Search for sectors, populations, geographies, or founder profiles receiving less capital than their underlying economic importance suggests.
Pro tip Compare deal pricing and investor density across regions and categories.
Watch out An unpopular market is not automatically an inefficient one.
- 2
Define the unmet need
Specify the customer problem, its frequency, and why existing providers fail to solve it adequately.
Pro tip Look for utility and recurring demand rather than novelty alone.
Watch out Do not confuse a compelling social mission with proven customer demand.
- 3
Test authentic access
Assess whether the founders understand and can credibly reach the target population through experience, trust, or distribution.
Pro tip Treat founder-market proximity as a potential unfair advantage.
Watch out Demographic similarity alone does not establish execution ability.
- 4
Validate outside the venture bubble
Interview customers, practitioners, and domain experts who directly experience the problem.
Pro tip Use personal or professional networks for fast, grounded diligence.
Watch out Do not rely solely on other investors' enthusiasm.
- 5
Write the contrarian thesis
Document what the market believes, why that belief is incomplete, and what evidence would make the alternative thesis correct.
Pro tip State what would falsify the thesis before committing capital.
Watch out Contrarianism without evidence is merely disagreement.
- 6
Price the inefficiency
Compare valuation, ownership potential, competition, and expected upside with more fashionable opportunities.
Pro tip Seek situations where limited competition improves both entry price and investor access.
Watch out A low valuation cannot compensate for a structurally weak business.
In the wild
Other investors reportedly associated fashionable medical scrubs with a fashion company. TMV instead framed Figs as a utility and uniform business serving healthcare workers who valued comfort, pockets, and appearance. Darabi validated the need with nurses and doctors in her family and saw room for expansion beyond one apparel category.
→ TMV helped value the company at an early stage before Figs later entered the public market at a multibillion-dollar valuation.
TMV backed a healthcare company serving vulnerable, low-income populations. The team’s diversity was evaluated as an advantage because it supported authentic access to patients that other providers might ignore, while payer relationships enabled affordable care.
→ The investment combined a large underserved market with a credible distribution and access advantage.
Rather than competing only in Silicon Valley, an investor applies the screen to Baltimore or Austin, compares seed valuations and investor density, and develops close relationships with founders who have fewer venture connections.
→ The investor gains greater ownership at a lower entry valuation while supplying genuinely scarce network support.
Common mistakes
Treating diversity as charity
This misses the commercial mechanism. The relevant question is whether a team’s experience, trust, or access improves product insight and distribution.
Being contrarian for its own sake
A neglected idea still requires evidence of demand, founder capability, and attractive economics.
Following fashionable geography
Restricting sourcing to saturated hubs can raise valuations and obscure equally capable founders elsewhere.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for early-stage investors seeking differentiated deal flow and asymmetric returns in underserved sectors or geographies.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for investors who require mature financial histories, high liquidity, or consensus validation.
From the transcript
“when you have a contrary point of view, contrarion point of view, you often have outlier results because if you're right, you're taking the risk…”
“we don't see the diversity of the team as impact. We actually see that as their unfair advantage because they are accessing the population authentically…”
“it's about inefficiencies in market, but also just around about you know, being persistent and looking where where others are not”
From the episode
Soraya Darabi on Social-Media Startups (Podcast)
Soraya Darabi