Decide, Monitor, and Adjust
Make a decision, watch the results, and correct course quickly
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
The framework treats decision-making as a feedback loop rather than a single moment of judgment. A leader chooses a course using the best information currently available, then actively monitors what happens instead of assuming the original choice must remain correct. When results diverge from expectations, the leader acknowledges the problem, identifies what must change, and adjusts quickly. The method separates being decisive from being stubborn: action is necessary, but continued commitment must be earned by evidence. Over time, reviewing mistakes and avoiding their repetition improves the ratio of good decisions to bad ones. Openness also helps teams surface problems earlier because they do not need to conceal evidence that contradicts the original plan.
Origin
Extracted from Masters in Business during Richard Tice's discussion of lessons from business and politics.
Core principles
- 01Treat decisions as testable rather than permanent
- 02Monitor outcomes after acting
- 03Acknowledge failure openly
- 04Correct mistakes before they compound
- 05Learn enough to avoid repeating the same error
How to run it
- 1
Make the decision
Choose a course of action using the evidence and judgment available at the time. Do not let the possibility of error prevent action.
Pro tip State the assumptions behind the decision so they can be checked later.
Watch out Waiting for certainty can become a substitute for deciding.
- 2
Monitor the outcome
Track whether the decision is producing the intended results. Look for operational evidence rather than relying on reassurance or reputation.
Pro tip Choose a small set of observable success and failure indicators.
Watch out Do not ignore inconvenient evidence because it threatens the original decision.
- 3
Acknowledge deviations
Be open when results show that something has gone wrong. Separate the quality of the leader from the performance of the current approach.
Pro tip Make it safe for colleagues to report problems early.
Watch out Covering up failure delays correction and increases its cost.
- 4
Adjust quickly
Change the decision, implementation, or underlying assumptions in response to what monitoring reveals. Continue observing the revised approach.
Pro tip Prefer the smallest correction capable of restoring progress.
Watch out Do not preserve a failing policy merely to appear consistent.
- 5
Capture the lesson
Identify why the initial judgment failed and incorporate that lesson into future decisions. Aim to avoid repeating the same class of mistake.
Pro tip Write a short decision review while the evidence is fresh.
Watch out A correction without learning leaves the organization vulnerable to recurrence.
In the wild
A company launches a new subscription tier and defines adoption, retention, and support volume as its indicators. After two weeks, adoption is healthy but cancellations and support requests exceed the agreed thresholds. Rather than defending the launch, the team reviews customer feedback, simplifies the onboarding flow, and removes a confusing restriction. It then monitors the same indicators after the change.
→ The company preserves momentum while correcting the part of the original decision that evidence showed was failing.
Common mistakes
Confusing consistency with competence
Leaders may continue an unsuccessful approach because reversing it feels like admitting weakness. The framework instead treats evidence-led correction as part of competent leadership.
Monitoring without thresholds
Collecting data is ineffective when nobody has defined what would justify a change. Establish success and failure signals when making the decision.
Adjusting without learning
A quick correction can solve the immediate problem while leaving its cause unexplored. Review why the original assumptions failed so the mistake is not repeated.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for leaders making consequential decisions under uncertainty in business, government, or project environments.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for irreversible decisions where experimentation or later correction is impossible.
From the transcript
“The key is to learn from them and to try and not make them again, and try and make you know, more good decisions than…”
“successful people know that you achieve that success by you make a decision and then you monitor it and adjust it.”
“actually not prepared to accept when something's gone wrong and quickly change it and adjust it and be open about it, as opposed to trying…”
From the episode
Introducing “Out of Office,” A New Show From Bloomberg Live