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Tom Hancock01 February 2024

Tom Hancock on Quality Stocks and Launching ETFs

3Frameworks
9Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster19:57

Why Safer Quality Stocks Have Not Required Lower Returns

The conventional risk-return story works broadly between stocks and bonds but has not held consistently within asset classes. Hancock says high-quality companies have historically offered resilience without forcing investors to accept lower returns, although quality is not guaranteed to beat the market continuously.

  • Cross-asset risk and return behave differently from within-asset comparisons
  • High-quality companies tend to fare better in recessions
  • Historical safety has not required a lower return
  • Quality improves portfolio characteristics but is not a permanent silver bullet

“But if you look within asset classes, that hasn't been true just empirically”

Tom Hancock · 20:39

“But it does improve your portfolio with lower risk without having to give up return.”

Tom Hancock · 21:04
#risk#returns#quality stocks#portfolio
Myth Buster35:46

GMO's Deep Value Signal Is Mostly About an Expensive Market

The unusually cheap reading for deep value is relative to the broader market rather than evidence that the cheapest stocks are extraordinarily cheap in absolute terms. GMO's definition also incorporates intrinsic value and a substantial quality component instead of simply selecting the lowest price-to-book shares.

  • The valuation spread is exceptionally wide
  • Expensive non-value stocks drive much of the relative signal
  • Market concentration means true value sits deeper in the distribution
  • GMO's intrinsic-value measure blends in quality

“It's not so much that cheap stocks are really really cheap. It's that the spread of valuation ratios is very wide”

Tom Hancock · 36:33

“that's deep value on a measure of what we call intrinsic value that blends a hefty version of quality into that.”

Tom Hancock · 37:36
#deep value#valuation spread#market concentration#intrinsic value

Explainer· 3

Explainer09:55

Why GMO Has No Single Central Investment View

GMO grew from separate teams led by founders Jeremy Grantham, Dick Mayo, and Eyk van Otterloo. That history produced an intellectually argumentative culture in which teams use different approaches and Grantham challenges managers to reach their own conclusions rather than directly running portfolios.

  • The three founders operated distinct investment teams
  • Different teams retain freedom to invest differently
  • Grantham acts as a big-picture provocateur rather than a hands-on portfolio manager
  • Intellectual debate has remained central as the firm expanded

“There is not one central view to the firm.”

Tom Hancock · 10:35

“He makes you think about things, he makes suggestions, he pushes you to come to your own conclusion.”

Tom Hancock · 10:52
#gmo#culture#investment teams#leadership
Explainer26:34

Why GMO Put Its Institutional Strategy Into an ETF

GMO launched QLTY primarily to serve tax-paying institutional and family-office clients through a more efficient pooled vehicle, not simply to enter retail. The maturing active-ETF market also made it possible to offer the strategy broadly without taking on the operational burden of many small separate accounts.

  • Tax efficiency was a primary motivation
  • Pooled vehicles preserve portfolio-manager focus
  • ETF infrastructure makes small investors operationally manageable
  • Active strategies have become more accepted in ETF form

“the genesis of having an ETF for us was less about entering the retail market or accessing different clients, and more about better servicing the…”

Tom Hancock · 27:41

“it's really over the last few years that an active strategy in an ETF has been something people would pay any attention to.”

Tom Hancock · 28:36
#etf#tax efficiency#gmo#active management
Explainer28:43

Inside QLTY's Concentrated, Low-Turnover Portfolio

The ETF uses the same team, philosophy, and process as GMO's quality mutual fund but limits itself to US companies. It holds about 35 liquid large-cap stocks, turns over roughly 20% annually, and generates much of that activity by rebalancing existing positions rather than replacing companies.

  • The ETF is US-only while the mutual fund can hold non-US companies
  • The portfolio contains roughly 35 large-cap names
  • Turnover has been about 20% per year
  • Approximately half of turnover reflects position rebalancing
  • Liquid holdings allow a 50-basis-point fee and substantial capacity

“It's the same investment process, philosophy, team and everything.”

Tom Hancock · 28:57

“probably about half that turnover. It's not so much new stocks entering or stocks exiting, is more rebalancing around valuation moves in the portfolio.”

Tom Hancock · 31:06
#qlty#etf#portfolio construction#turnover

Story· 1

Story02:42

How a 1990s Machine-Learning Researcher Found GMO

Hancock moved from theoretical computer science and machine-learning research into finance because he wanted work that felt more relevant. A chance academic connection with GMO quantitative researcher Chris Darnell gave him an entry into the firm in 1995.

  • Hancock studied computer science rather than following his family's liberal-arts path
  • His graduate and Siemens research focused on machine learning
  • He left theoretical research in search of greater practical relevance
  • An MIT research-group connection led to GMO

“I was basically looking for something that was relevant.”

Tom Hancock · 05:39

“that connection was rekindled and that was my entree into GMO.”

Tom Hancock · 07:21
#career change#machine learning#quant finance#gmo

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway25:03

Quality Stocks Serve Both Fear and Greed

Quality companies can soften the impact of downturns while still participating in innovation-led bull markets. Belief in the underlying businesses may also provide a behavioral advantage by making investors less likely to panic-sell during market stress.

  • Quality can function as a sleep-at-night equity allocation
  • Conviction can reduce selling at the worst moment
  • Quality is not equivalent to cash or a purely defensive portfolio
  • Strong companies can participate in AI, healthcare, and other innovation

“if you hold quality stocks that you really believe in, you're less likely to sell at the wrong moment.”

Tom Hancock · 25:36

“the greed part is that high quality companies do participate in the upmarket.”

Tom Hancock · 25:56
#behavior#downside protection#innovation#quality stocks
Takeaway43:11

Aspiring Investors Should Learn Broadly Before Specializing

Hancock advises graduates to explore the breadth of finance and build broad intellectual foundations before learning the trade's narrower techniques. Mathematics, history, business analysis, and sustained reading are more valuable preparation than consuming only investment media.

  • Investment and finance contain many distinct career paths
  • Exposure to different activities helps narrow the field
  • Broad learning should precede narrow specialization
  • Investing rewards understanding how businesses and the world work

“Just figure out about learning. Learn all sorts of things. Learn math, learn history. You can always learn a trade after that.”

Tom Hancock · 43:33

“you just spend so much of your time just learning about how businesses work. How the world works.”

Tom Hancock · 44:12
#career advice#learning#finance careers#reading
Takeaway44:30

The Investing Lesson Hancock Wishes He Learned Earlier

Hancock began with a contrarian preference for low-multiple, underperforming stocks. After decades of investing, he places more weight on the value of time and compounding and believes a genuinely superior business can justify a higher purchase price.

  • Contrarian instincts can create an overly narrow value orientation
  • Low multiples do not automatically create superior investments
  • Time magnifies the advantage of durable compounders
  • Paying a sensible premium can be better than buying a weak business cheaply

“I think realizing the value of time and compounding and it's just worth paying up for a higher quality business.”

Tom Hancock · 44:56
#compounding#career lesson#quality investing#value investing