Why Rockstar Hedge Fund Returns Create the Wrong Expectations
Media coverage emphasizes spectacular winners and failures because events in the tails make compelling stories. Across hedge funds as a whole, expected equity-like returns are closer to the high single digits than the extraordinary figures associated with famous outliers.
- Exceptional results receive disproportionate coverage
- Strong performers commonly revert toward the mean
- Most hedge fund outcomes sit in the middle of the distribution
- High-single-digit expectations are more realistic than headline returns
“People do well, they revert to the mean.”
“Most of the action isn't on either tail. Most of the actions right in the middle.”