Finance Sells Certainty That Complex Systems Cannot Deliver
Richards rejects the search for physics-like laws in markets, economies, politics, and human behavior. These are complex adaptive systems, so a historical seven-step explanation may describe one period without reproducing its result in the next.
- Markets are complex adaptive systems
- Hindsight can produce false causal confidence
- Certainty is easy to sell but impossible to deliver
- Useful models should not be confused with laws
“we just want the law of gravity for money”
“certainty so easy to sell. It's impossible to deliver, but it's super easy to sell because everybody wants to buy it”