Siegel's analysis of roughly 50 years of REIT data found returns close to those of the S&P 500. Contrary to the popular impression that real estate is inherently steadier, REIT drawdowns exceeded those of the stock index in nearly every recession except the technology bust. Housing feels less volatile partly because owners do not receive continuous price quotations.

REIT returns were approximately equal to S&P 500 returns
REIT drawdowns were often larger during recessions
Infrequent home-price observations create an illusion of stability
Forced-sale value can differ sharply from an owner's perceived value

“The return on the read index is virtually exact. Wait, the same as the S and P five.”
Jeremy Siegel · 14:53

“people don't get a print on their house everything every second, so it feels stable because you're not seeing prices.”
Barry Ritholtz · 15:23

#real estate#reits#volatility#returns

Myth Buster52:33

Official Housing Inflation Can Rise After Real-Time Prices Turn Down

Siegel argues that Bureau of Labor Statistics housing measures incorporate rents with a substantial delay. The methodology understated housing inflation while market prices surged and could then overstate it after current prices weakened. Relying on the lagged measure risks tightening monetary policy in response to conditions that have already reversed.

Official rent and housing data enter inflation statistics slowly
The lag understated earlier housing inflation
The same lag can overstate current inflation during a slowdown
Real-time housing indexes may provide a more current direction
Policy based solely on the lagged series can become procyclical

“We basically, because of the way the Bureau Labor Statistics computes it, it's very lagged in housing prices.”
Jeremy Siegel · 52:57

“And they're still showing an accelerating while the real housing press are going down.”
Jeremy Siegel · 54:45

#housing#inflation#data lags#federal reserve

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take1:00:51

The Market's Surprise Risk May Be Sharply to the Upside

The speakers see obvious downside risks from overtightening, recession, and earnings weakness, but argue that these risks were already widely feared. A Federal Reserve pause, stronger earnings, or an end to the Ukraine war could trigger a much faster upward repricing. Siegel considers stocks undervalued enough that buyers with a multi-year horizon should benefit.

Downside macroeconomic risks are already prominent
A policy pivot could produce a sudden market rally
Positive geopolitical or earnings news creates additional upside catalysts
Long-term buyers need not identify the exact market bottom

“when the Fed pivots look at you, you'll see a thousand point”
Jeremy Siegel · 1:00:58

“I think stocks are quite undervalued”
Jeremy Siegel · 1:01:29

#stock market#valuation#fed pivot#risk

Explainer· 3

Explainer24:02

Why Growth-Stock Bubbles Seem to Return Once a Generation

Siegel identifies recurring periods when investors overpay for a favored group of rapidly growing companies. He points to the Nifty Fifty, the dot-com boom, and the recent mega-cap technology surge as postwar examples separated by roughly a generation. After the collapse, sentiment can overshoot far enough to make former favorites undervalued.

Fast growth encourages investors to rationalize extreme prices
Postwar growth booms have appeared roughly every 20 to 25 years
Each generation has limited memory of the previous speculative cycle
A bust can carry securities from overvaluation into undervaluation

“We have had these growth spurts of over evaluation through history, and it appears, at least in the post World War two period had come…”
Jeremy Siegel · 24:10

“oftentimes the bust brings them to undervaluation.”
Jeremy Siegel · 26:15

#market cycles#growth stocks#bubbles#valuation

Explainer26:53

The Pandemic Amplified Technology Enthusiasm Rather Than Creating It

The pandemic acted as an external shock that accelerated trends already visible in technology shares. Work-from-home beneficiaries gained an additional narrative, while abundant Federal Reserve liquidity reinforced demand for the same securities. Many later suffered steep declines once pandemic assumptions and valuations normalized.

Major technology companies were rising before COVID-19
Remote-work expectations intensified enthusiasm for technology
Monetary expansion added fuel to favored stocks
Pandemic beneficiaries later experienced sharply different outcomes

“a lot of these things were building before the pandemic.”
Barry Ritholtz · 27:10

“with all the money that was created by the Federal Reserve, it just could go right to those stocks.”
Jeremy Siegel · 27:52

#pandemic#technology#market bubbles#liquidity

Explainer49:07

Gold Depends on Real Rates and the Dollar, Not Inflation Alone

Gold's long-run real return is under one percent, making it closer to a wealth-preservation asset than a high-return investment. Its disappointing dollar performance during high inflation becomes more understandable after considering rising real interest rates, a stronger dollar, and competition from Bitcoin. Gold performed better when measured in weaker currencies.

Gold has historically returned less than one percent above inflation
Bitcoin competed for gold's inflation-hedge narrative
Higher real rates increase gold's opportunity cost
A strong dollar creates another headwind
Gold's performance varies by the investor's base currency

“the long run on gold is less than one percent above inflation”
Jeremy Siegel · 49:11

“So the fact that real rates went up two or fifty basis points, that's a big headwind to gold. The dollar surging, big head head”
Jeremy Schwartz · 51:46

#gold#inflation#real rates#bitcoin#currencies

Story· 1

Story1:08:25

Siegel's Intellectual Circle Included Friedman, Samuelson, and Shiller

Siegel credits Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson with shaping his career, having worked alongside Friedman and studied under Samuelson. He also describes a friendship with Robert Shiller lasting more than five decades despite their different temperaments and views of risk. The relationships show how intellectual disagreement can coexist with durable personal trust.

Samuelson served on Siegel's thesis committee
Friedman was Siegel's colleague during his first four teaching years
Siegel and Shiller met as graduate students in 1967
Their friendship persisted despite contrasting attitudes toward risk

“I regarded those as probably the two. I mean, I was honored to be able to be able to be so close to them”
Jeremy Siegel · 1:08:47

“We've we've been friends for fifty five years.”
Jeremy Siegel · 1:09:38

#mentorship#economics#friendship#intellectual history

Q&A· 1

Q&A37:16

How Did Four Million More Workers Produce No More Real Output?

Siegel highlights an apparent contradiction between strong payroll growth and stagnant or negative real GDP during the first half of 2022. Possible explanations include reduced worker productivity, inaccurate GDP measurement, and uneven technology benefits across occupations. Subsequent data revisions had not resolved the discrepancy at the time of the interview.

Payrolls added roughly four million workers
Real output remained approximately unchanged
Initial GDP revisions did not eliminate the puzzle
Technology may improve white-collar productivity more than physical service work
Living standards ultimately depend on output per hour

“The first two quarters of this year has been the slowest productivity growth we've had since World War Two”
Jeremy Siegel · 37:21

“Productivity is the measure of standard of living. It's output per unit our work.”
Jeremy Siegel · 42:53

#productivity#labor#gdp#remote work

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway10:30

Remote Work Is Productive, but Face-to-Face Time Needs a Purpose

WisdomTree became a remote-first organization and found that distributed teams could remain productive and internationally connected. Schwartz nevertheless argues that in-person work retains value when it is explicitly used for spontaneous discussion and collaboration rather than individual computer work or office-based video calls.

Remote-first work can connect global teams effectively
Scheduled video calls do not reproduce every spontaneous discovery
Office time is most valuable when designed around collaboration
Commuting merely to perform solitary computer work is inefficient

“We find it to be very productive.”
Jeremy Schwartz · 10:44

“You do find little things. There is the benefit of the collaboration that you find things you wouldn't have found on a zoom call because…”
Jeremy Schwartz · 11:07

#remote work#collaboration#management#productivity

Takeaway45:44

Stocks Maintained a 6.7% Real Return Across Two More Turbulent Decades

The original edition of Stocks for the Long Run calculated an annualized real stock return of 6.7 percent from nineteenth-century data. Adding three more decades—including the dot-com bust, financial crisis, pandemic, and another bear market—left that figure unchanged. Siegel contrasts this consistency with much weaker recent real bond returns.

The measured long-run real stock return is 6.7 percent annually
Thirty additional years did not change the historical result
The period included several major booms, crashes, and crises
Long-horizon stock risk compares favorably with inflation-adjusted bond risk

“six point seven percent. That's real real dividend to return six point seven percent stocks compound annual.”
Jeremy Siegel · 45:56

“You add thirty years, and we went through to June of this year to make sure we got the recession in six point seven percent…”
Jeremy Siegel · 46:06

#stocks#long-term returns#bonds#asset allocation

Takeaway1:02:52

Small-Cap Value Was Trading Near a 30-Year Relative Extreme

Schwartz notes that United States small-cap strategies were trading around nine to ten times earnings, near the cheapest relative position of the previous three decades. At such earnings yields, investors may earn attractive real returns without requiring valuation multiples to expand. The thesis depends on a long holding period rather than an immediate rebound.

Small-cap portfolios traded near nine to ten times earnings
Their discount to large caps was historically extreme
A high earnings yield can support returns without multiple expansion
The opportunity is framed over five to ten years

“US small caps at nine to ten times earnings”
Jeremy Schwartz · 1:02:52

“you don't even need them to move up on evaluation if you hold on to stuff that.”
Jeremy Schwartz · 1:03:45

#small caps#value investing#valuation#earnings yield

Frameworks in this episode

Comparative Advantage Career Filter

Five Percent Money Growth Rule

Fundamental-Weighted Indexing

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 2

REITs Matched Stock Returns but Were Not More Stable