New York's offices remained heavily underused while residential sales, leasing activity, and rents reached unusually high levels. Miller argues that people still value cities for cultural and lifestyle reasons even when remote work reduces daily office attendance.

Office occupancy and residential demand can diverge
Remote workers may live in a city without commuting daily
New York recorded strong sales and rental activity
Urban amenities continue to attract residents

“the office towers are two thirds empty right now. Yet Ino we've had some of the highest sales volumes in history.”
Jonathan Miller · 24:20

“people are in the still in the city or want to be in the city”
Jonathan Miller · 24:52

#cities#new york#remote work#urban real estate

Myth Buster36:20

The Hidden Qualification Behind Zestimate Accuracy

Miller argues that Zestimate's advertised median accuracy can mislead consumers because performance is substantially better for homes already listed for sale. The listing price supplied by human market participants helps the automated model, while uneven public records limit precision.

Median error does not mean every estimate is similarly accurate
Listed properties provide the algorithm with human-generated pricing information
Unlisted homes have materially weaker estimated accuracy
Public-record quality varies by municipality and county
Automated valuations should not be treated as precise appraisals

“this estimate needs human beings to price the listing to shave off five and accuracy.”
Jonathan Miller · 38:00

“it's been brilliantly marketed, yet it's wildly unreliable”
Jonathan Miller · 38:16

#zestimate#avm#appraisals#data quality

Hot Take· 4

Hot Take19:19

Why More Rental Construction May Not Lower Typical Rents

Miller expects a large supply response in multifamily development but warns that new construction is concentrated in the upper half of the rental market. More units therefore do not necessarily deliver the price points or distribution that constrained renters need.

Tighter mortgage underwriting pushes some households into rentals
Developers respond to record rents with new multifamily supply
New construction disproportionately targets higher-income tenants
Unit growth alone does not solve affordability across the market

“you're creating a lot more rental units, but you're creating not necessarily the right distribution of rental units.”
Jonathan Miller · 22:29

#rentals#affordability#multifamily#construction

Hot Take30:17

Florida's Housing Boom Is More Than a Pandemic Flash

Miller sees Florida's housing transformation as a structural migration trend rather than a temporary boom. Remote work, lower taxes, corporate relocation incentives, and affluent newcomers have spread high-end demand beyond the traditional Palm Beach and Miami enclaves.

Florida actively recruits corporate headquarters
Remote work supports durable inbound migration
Luxury demand has spread statewide
Higher rates may cool activity without reversing the structural change

“Those housing markets are being restructured essentially because of remote”
Jonathan Miller · 31:48

“I don't think this is a flash in the pan. I think this is real because of every seemingly every part of Florida is expanding.”
Jonathan Miller · 32:55

#florida#migration#sun belt#luxury housing

Hot Take39:49

The Real Test for iBuyers Is a Falling Market

Automated home-buying businesses emerged during flat or rising housing markets and remained a small share of transactions. Miller suggests their models had not yet been meaningfully tested under sustained falling prices, where inventory risk and valuation errors become more consequential.

Automation did not take over the transaction market
iBuyers remained a small market subset
Early models operated mainly in favorable price environments
Declining prices create a tougher test of automated acquisition

“They haven't really been tested. Um, they've only existed in rising housing markets, flats arising.”
Jonathan Miller · 40:35

#ibuyers#automation#housing technology#market risk

Hot Take44:08

The Perverse Incentive Behind Constant Appraisal Rule Changes

Miller criticizes the Appraisal Foundation for frequently changing professional standards that states and territories must adopt. He argues that reversals create regulatory confusion while generating recurring demand for mandatory educational materials and classes.

Professional standards are embedded across many jurisdictions
Rules are revised on a recurring cycle
Some changes are later removed or reversed
Appraisers must buy updated materials and maintain licenses
Poor drafting can threaten practitioners over unintended errors

“they make changes and then they and then they embed that into state law and two years later they remove those same changes”
Jonathan Miller · 46:40

“The bottom line is that, uh, I'm against anything that damages the credibility of appraisers in the public eye”
Jonathan Miller · 48:38

#appraisal standards#regulation#licensing#governance

Explainer· 3

Explainer12:29

How the Pandemic Created the “Co-Primary” Home

Many urban owners bought suburban or vacation properties without selling their city residences, breaking the usual chain of linked transactions. Miller calls these second homes “co primary” because owners could toggle between them as remote work lengthened the tether between home and office.

Second-home purchases removed supply without adding an offsetting listing
Several years of suburban migration compressed into a few months
Remote work expanded the practical commuting radius
Higher earners had greater mobility and led the boom

“they were buying a second home, something that I dubbed co primary”
Jonathan Miller · 14:01

“the tether between work and home became infinitely longer because you have a lot more flexibility.”
Jonathan Miller · 14:52

#remote work#housing supply#migration#pandemic

Explainer25:52

Why Empty Offices Cannot Simply Become Apartments

Office-to-residential conversions are possible but difficult to execute at the scale implied by urban vacancy. Existing financing, costly residential occupancy requirements, zoning approvals, and long timelines constrain conversion, while headline asking rents hide major concessions in the office market.

Earlier conversions often involved older Class B buildings
Residential certificates of occupancy can be expensive
Community and zoning approvals take years
Debt collateral limits landlords' ability to reduce rents
Net effective rents may be far below reported asking rents

“It's not very realistic at all in terms of scale.”
Jonathan Miller · 26:50

“converting these buildings to red to have residential certificate of occupancies is tremendously expensive.”
Jonathan Miller · 28:06

#office conversion#commercial real estate#zoning#cities

Explainer41:37

How Appraisal Training Reinforces an Aging, Homogeneous Industry

The appraisal profession has little demographic diversity and requires entrants to find an individual mentor for an extended low-paid training period. Miller argues that this structure discourages entry, favors friends and relatives of existing appraisers, and reproduces the industry's current composition.

The profession is vastly smaller than the real-estate-agent population
Appraisal ranks poorly on occupational diversity
Entrants may work for roughly two years for little compensation
Experienced appraisers have weak incentives to train future competitors
Relationship-based mentoring can reproduce demographic similarity

“the eppraisal industry, it's it's night white”
Jonathan Miller · 43:24

“If you're hiring a friend or a family member, hey, maybe that person is less likely to be different than you are.”
Barry Ritholtz · 1:15:59

#appraisals#diversity#mentoring#careers

Q&A· 1

Q&A1:14:10

Why Miller Steers New Appraisers Toward Commercial Real Estate

Asked what advice he would give a graduate, Miller favors commercial valuation over residential appraisal because he sees greater future opportunity there. Residential entry is constrained by a costly mentorship requirement, an aging workforce, and uncertainty around the profession's future.

Commercial valuation may offer more future upside
Residential trainees struggle to find willing mentors
The current pathway can require years of poorly paid work
The residential profession is aging
Miller discouraged his sons from inheriting the firm

“I think there's a lot more upside in terms of future potential going into the commercial side rather than the residential side”
Jonathan Miller · 1:14:27

“it's an industry that's aging out”
Jonathan Miller · 1:15:14

#real estate careers#commercial appraisal#residential appraisal#graduates

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway1:09:10

Why Speaking More Softly Can Make an Audience Lean In

Miller learned from an early mentor that effective public speaking does not require shouting or constant animation. A slower, softer delivery can draw listeners toward the speaker and improve the presentation of analytical material.

Volume is not the same as authority
Soft delivery can increase audience attention
Slower pacing can strengthen analytical presentations
Presentation style should suit the subject matter

“the audience leans in a little bit more when you're not shouting, you're soft spoken.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:09:45

#public speaking#communication#mentorship

Takeaway1:17:23

Why Decades of Experience Can Mislead Real Estate Experts

Miller warns that longevity in real estate does not guarantee superior market judgment. Increased volatility makes old rules of thumb less reliable, while experienced practitioners can become lethargic and repeat methods that no longer fit current conditions.

Tenure and pricing skill are not equivalent
Habit can masquerade as expertise
Greater volatility weakens inherited rules of thumb
Younger practitioners can provide valuable market feedback
Current evidence should outrank age-based authority

“People with experience in real estate don't know as much about market pricing as you think they do.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:17:40

“Just because someone is experienced has been around a long time doesn't mean they're any better than someone that has experience that is a fraction…”
Jonathan Miller · 1:17:50

#experience#market pricing#bias#real estate

Frameworks in this episode

Aspirational Pricing Reality Check

Housing Market Adjustment Sequence

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 2

Empty Offices Did Not Mean New York Was Dead