The apparent urban exodus was more nuanced than a permanent city-to-suburb shift. Manhattan rentals suffered, but outer-borough purchase markets remained active, and reduced inbound migration—not just increased departures—made cities appear emptier.

Manhattan performed differently from Brooklyn and Queens
Many suburban first-time buyers came from Manhattan rentals
Unsafe conditions temporarily paused inbound urban migration
Leasing activity recovered as vaccine adoption increased
Suburban strength and urban recovery can happen simultaneously

“the narrative of urban diserver and I think has been really over overstated.”
Jonathan Miller · 23:25

“by no means are the city's far from over?”
Jonathan Miller · 24:17

#cities#urban real estate#migration#new york

Myth Buster1:03:45

Appraisers Observe Markets; They Do Not Set Them

Miller challenges the belief that appraisers directly determine neighborhood prices. Their task is to form a current market-value opinion from comparable transactions, although that observational process can still reproduce existing inequities and remain vulnerable to individual prejudice.

Appraisers estimate current market value for lenders
Comparable sales reflect transactions that already occurred
Appraisers are not market forecasters
Observational methods can perpetuate existing market disparities
Personal judgment leaves room for bias

“our profession is really a profession of observers, and we create opinions for a living”
Jonathan Miller · 1:04:41

“we're not forecasters. We're not predicting the future.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:06:05

#appraisal#valuation#comparables#housing

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take39:53

Lower Urban Costs Could Spark a Youth Renaissance

Falling residential rents and cheaper office space may reopen cities to younger residents, creative workers, and companies previously priced out. Miller argues this influx could rejuvenate urban economies after years in which development displaced much of the working and creative class.

Pre-pandemic urban costs squeezed out younger and working-class residents
Lower rents attracted new leasing demand
Cheaper Class A offices could admit new companies
Returning office workers can revive street-level retail
Recovery is likely gradual rather than an instant switch

“I call it a youth renaissance”
Jonathan Miller · 40:48

“that I think we'll have profound implications for the rejuvenation of the city”
Jonathan Miller · 42:06

#urban recovery#rents#young workers#office space

Explainer· 6

Explainer05:04

The Pandemic Accelerated Real Estate Trends Already Underway

Miller characterizes the pandemic less as the sole cause of housing changes than as an accelerator. It rapidly normalized remote work, intensified migration decisions, and amplified the housing impact of existing tax and affordability pressures.

Remote-office technology became ubiquitous almost immediately
Households reconsidered where and how they wanted to live
Existing migration and tax trends accelerated
Contract activity remained unusually strong across multiple markets

“The way I've looked at the pandemic is it is the great disruptor.”
Jonathan Miller · 05:04

“I see the pandemic is more of a you know, the disruptor that made these things, accelerated these phenomenon”
Jonathan Miller · 06:51

#pandemic#migration#remote work#housing demand

Explainer12:55

How Remote Work Turned Vacation Houses into Co-Primary Homes

Hybrid work weakens the geographic tether between home and office. Miller expects fewer commuting days but longer average commutes, while traditional second-home markets increasingly function as alternative primary residences.

Hybrid workers can live farther from employment centers
Total commuting mileage may fall while average commute length rises
Vacation markets can become part-time primary-home markets
Location premiums may be arbitraged across a wider radius

“the term co primary”
Jonathan Miller · 14:49

“The length has become you know, infinitely longer”
Jonathan Miller · 15:46

#hybrid work#commuting#second homes#suburbs

Explainer25:22

Why Billionaires' Row Is a Misleading Housing Indicator

Miller separates ultra-luxury development from the broader housing market. Billionaires' Row experienced large repricing and weak absorption, while less expensive new development remained much more liquid and constrained by limited affordable supply.

Ultra-luxury units peaked years before the pandemic
Many high-end developments remained substantially unsold
Lower-priced developments absorbed faster
Land and construction costs limit affordable supply
Miller defines luxury objectively as the top 10% of transactions

“it's not housing for mere mortals.”
Jonathan Miller · 25:40

“The lower you go in price, the faster are absorbed.”
Jonathan Miller · 30:50

#luxury housing#manhattan#affordability#development

Explainer51:56

How Appraisal Leadership Entrenched an Aging, Homogeneous Profession

Miller links discriminatory appraisal outcomes to structural problems in the profession, including homogeneous leadership, restrictive entry requirements, weak recruitment, and diminished compensation. He argues that diversity committees without changed representation or incentives amount to box-checking.

The appraisal profession is dominated by aging white men
Standards-setting boards historically lacked minority representation
Trainees need extensive supervised experience before certification
Third-party appraisal managers absorb significant portions of fees
Leadership and entry rules shape who can join the profession

“we are an aging professional of middle aged white males.”
Jonathan Miller · 52:43

“It's all just I call it like checking the box.”
Jonathan Miller · 56:43

#appraisal#systemic racism#diversity#real estate

Explainer1:15:29

The Hidden Trade-Off Behind iBuyer Convenience

An iBuyer offers speed and simplicity by purchasing a home directly, but the seller pays for that convenience through pricing and fees. Miller argues that thin margins make the model best suited to homogeneous housing markets and notes that its retreat during the lockdown exposed untested downside risk.

Direct buyers remove showings and marketing delays
Offers account for repairs, fees, and resale margins
Homogeneous housing stock improves valuation precision
Thin margins create exposure to market changes
The model had not been fully tested through a sustained downturn

“an I buyer is essentially a company comes to you and buys your house from you. You don't put it on the market.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:16:29

“the margins are razor thin.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:17:19

#ibuyers#proptech#home selling#valuation

Explainer1:21:11

How SALT and Remote Work Combined to Accelerate Florida Migration

The federal cap on state and local tax deductions changed ownership economics in high-tax states, especially for expensive homes. Migration to Florida initially remained modest, but the pandemic and remote work turned the tax difference into a stronger relocation catalyst.

The deduction cap disproportionately affected high-tax states
Higher-end suburban markets weakened before the pandemic
Florida demand rose sharply after lockdowns
Remote work made tax-motivated relocation more practical
The pandemic accelerated a trend rather than creating it alone

“that really changes the math, uh substantially.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:24:27

“the pandemic we should look at. The pandemic is sort of the trigger or the the the instigator of this”
Jonathan Miller · 1:27:01

#salt tax#florida#migration#property taxes

Q&A· 1

Q&A1:43:48

What Graduates Should Know Before Choosing a Real Estate Career

Miller warns that conventional mortgage appraisal faces automation and economic pressure, while specialized appraisal retains defensible niches. Brokerage can create exceptional earnings, but it is a volatile, commission-dependent profession in which a small minority captures much of the income.

Generic mortgage appraisal faces long-term pressure
Specialized valuation is harder to automate
Brokerage earnings are highly concentrated
Commission-only work is not suitable for everyone
Industry membership rises and falls with the housing cycle

“there's always a niche that is hard to automate.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:44:19

#real estate careers#brokerage#appraisal#automation

Tool· 1

Tool1:07:48

What a 5% Median Valuation Error Really Means

Consumers can misread a median accuracy statistic as a universal guarantee. Miller explains that a 5% median error means only half of estimates fall within that threshold, leaving the other half outside it—potentially by substantial amounts.

Median error is not a maximum error
Half of estimates perform worse than the median threshold
A simple percentage can obscure a wide error distribution
Automated valuations should not be treated as precise appraisals

“That means that the median accuracy that means fifty percent of the time it's within five and of the time it's not.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:08:13

“It's pretty wide.”
Jonathan Miller · 1:08:20

#avm#zestimate#statistics#valuation

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway48:32

Remote Work Functions, but Mentorship Breaks Down

Miller's firm found that remote work could sustain operations but struggled to develop new employees. Junior staff missed the informal learning that comes from hearing experienced colleagues solve valuation problems in real time.

Remote work can support established employees
New hires are difficult to train entirely remotely
Office immersion exposes staff to tacit problem-solving knowledge
Hybrid schedules can balance safety, flexibility, and mentorship

“the remote really works. But the big, big, big challenge of it, and where it doesn't work, where it fails is mentorship.”
Jonathan Miller · 50:44

“you can't train them remotely.”
Jonathan Miller · 51:04

#remote work#mentorship#training#office culture

Frameworks in this episode

Housing Bubble Leverage Test

Transaction-Inventory-Price Lag

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 2

Why the Pandemic Did Not Mean the Death of Cities