The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.
⚡Myth Buster· 1
⚡Myth Buster13:39
Manhattan's Record Cash Share Did Not Mean More Cash Buyers
Cash represented roughly two-thirds of Manhattan transactions, but the share increased because financed purchases fell much faster. Both cash and financed transaction counts declined, making the record percentage a composition effect rather than a cash-buying explosion.
Cash reached about 65% of Manhattan transactions
Total transaction volume fell around 40%
Cash purchases fell about 20%
Financed purchases fell about 50%
“the second quarter had the highest market share of cash transactions in history.”
Cheap Federal Flood Insurance Encourages Risky Development
Miller argues that federally priced flood insurance undercuts private insurers and shifts more climate risk to taxpayers. Rebuilding rules reduce some physical exposure, but repeated disasters can replace modest housing with expensive homes and worsen affordability.
Federal premiums can underprice flood risk
Private insurers struggle to compete
Taxpayers absorb greater exposure
Post-disaster rebuilding can displace middle-class housing
“the federal government is encouraging development in in flood zones.”
“it's just bringing on more risk onto the taxpayer for these locations.”
#flood-insurance#fema#climate-risk#housing
◆Hot Take1:00:53
Florida Is Restructuring, Not Merely Enjoying a Housing Boom
Remote work is turning Florida from a vacation destination into a year-round residential and business economy. Population growth, corporate recruitment, and ultra-luxury sales have spread beyond Miami and Palm Beach, though infrastructure and housing supply remain strained.
Florida's population rose about 7% after the pandemic
Some cities actively recruit northeastern executives
Luxury sales have spread into more Florida markets
Housing and infrastructure have not fully absorbed the influx
The migration is real but somewhat exaggerated
“the real estate industry down there because of work from home is undergoing restructuring”
“the market is maturing”
#florida#migration#remote-work#luxury-real-estate
✶Explainer· 8
✶Explainer11:37
Why Doubling Mortgage Rates Did Not Crash Home Prices
Higher mortgage rates sharply reduced sales, but the expected surge in available homes never materialized. Scarce inventory preserved seller leverage and even allowed bidding wars to persist in New York suburbs.
Sales slowed after mortgage rates doubled
New inventory fell instead of rising
Scarcity prevented a broad price correction
About 45% of suburban New York closings involved bidding wars
“you expect inventory to pile high to the sky, and that didn't happen.”
“the inventory factor is what is throwing all the modeling off.”
How Low-Rate Mortgages Locked Existing Homes Off the Market
Most mortgaged owners held rates far below prevailing market rates, making a move financially painful. Miller expects meaningfully lower rates—not necessarily a return to 3%—to release some inventory, although probably not enough to erase the shortage.
About 61% of mortgaged homeowners had rates at 4% or less
Moving would require replacing cheap debt with expensive debt
High-5% mortgage rates could release some listings
Any initial inventory recovery would remain inadequate
“if mortgage rates drift meaningfully lower, and by meaningful I mean you know in the high fives certainly I'm not talking about fours or three…”
“I think that's going to bring more inventory into the market, but still it'll be far inadequate.”
Why America's Starter-Home Deficit Exceeds the Headline Shortage
The United States underbuilt millions of homes after the financial crisis, but the raw deficit understates the problem for first-time buyers. Builders increasingly favored higher-end homes as land costs rose, leaving the affordable end of the market especially constrained.
Post-crisis construction collapsed for years
Published shortfall estimates range from roughly two to five million homes
New construction shifted toward luxury inventory
Starter-home scarcity is more severe than aggregate counts suggest
“I'd say there's a much more severe inventory challenge for starter homes first time buyers.”
Remote Work Redefined the Geography of Home Buying
The rapid adoption of Zoom weakened the traditional connection between home choice and daily commuting. Buyers could move farther away, but Miller stresses that remote work affected urban residents too and was not simply an exodus from cities to suburbs.
Zoom became culturally ubiquitous almost overnight
Commute distance became less binding
Some buyers moved farther from employment centers
Remote work also occurred within cities
Hybrid work will remain industry-dependent
“it changed what I call I described as the tether between work and home”
“I don't care whether the economy is strong or weak, it's not going to be the same.”
#remote-work#commuting#housing#hybrid-work
✶Explainer53:32
Why Empty Offices Cannot Simply Become Apartments
Office-to-residential conversion is constrained by landlord debt, unsuitable building geometry, and high construction costs. Miller expects distressed buildings to move from weak owners to better-capitalized buyers before adaptive reuse becomes financially practical.
Many landlords cannot cut rents enough to cover debt service
Lower acquisition costs can enable creative reuse
Deep office floor plates lack residential window access
Conversions may require expensive interior courtyards
The transition could take at least four or five years
“Many landlords can't capitulate because the debt service. They can't cover the debt service.”
“we're going to see a lot of a tremendous amount of office space move from weak hands to strong hands.”
More frequent and larger disasters raise insurance, rebuilding, and ownership costs. Miller expects the effects to progress from higher expenses and reduced insurability to some markets eventually becoming unsuitable for occupancy.
Disasters are increasing in frequency and scale
Insurance availability is already strained in Florida and California
Higher premiums raise the total cost of ownership
Some locations may become economically or physically unsuitable
“climate change. I think of it as just bringing a higher frequency of disasters and larger scale disasters.”
“eventually some markets not being suitable for occupancy.”
The Governance Failure Behind Appraisal's Diversity Crisis
The appraisal profession ranked last among 400 tracked industries for diversity in 2021. Miller argues that entry requirements and unaccountable industry governance perpetuate exclusion while committees substitute for concrete reform.
Appraisal ranked 400th of 400 industries for diversity
The profession was less diverse than farming and ranching
Industry bodies control entry structures
Miller calls for representative leadership and meaningful oversight
“the appraisal industry was four hundredth out of four hundred in diversity.”
“They set up committees and councils as if that is action, but they don't actually do anything”
#appraisal#diversity#governance#racial-bias
✶Explainer1:43:33
Why $50 Million Homes Form a Market Detached From Their Cities
Miller treats $50-million-plus properties as a national and international market of outliers rather than an ordinary local segment. Performance varies dramatically by individual building, and nearby towers can experience radically different resale outcomes.
Miller has tracked $50-million-plus closings since 2014
Annual transaction counts remain tiny
Global wealth matters more than local housing conditions
One tower saw roughly 50% resale discounts
Another nearby building produced a resale at twice the sponsor price
“I think of it as a market of outliers”
“It became a market that is detached from the local market that it sits.”
How Mortgage Brokers Corrupted Pre-Crisis Appraisals
Before the financial crisis, mortgage brokers often selected appraisers and were paid only when deals closed. Miller says this rewarded appraisers who reached the required number and punished firms that insisted on independent valuation.
Mortgage brokers controlled appraiser selection
Compensation depended on completed deals
Independent appraisers lost business
Miller publicly warned that many valuations were unreliable
“the system incentivized mortgage brokers to hire the appraisers that made the numbers for them because they wouldn't get paid until the deal closed.”
“most of the appraisals being done through mortgage brokers aren't worth the paper they're written on.”
#appraisal#mortgages#financial-crisis#incentives
▲Takeaway· 1
▲Takeaway41:03
Why Overpaying Can Be Rational for a Long-Term Home
Miller paid 36% over asking for a house he and his wife loved, while estimating that it had been deliberately underpriced. He views a primary home as a slow-moving asset and place to live, not solely as an investment whose success depends on winning the negotiation.
The home attracted roughly 30 competing buyers
Miller estimated the listing was about 15% underpriced
The couple expected to remain for a long time
Long-term personal utility can outweigh purchase-price optimization
“I've never looked at it as an investment vehicle housing itself. It's just a slow moving asset.”