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James Donald19 March 2018

James Donald Discusses the Sensitivity of Emerging Markets

1Frameworks
13Insights

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The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take23:01

Why Active Managers Can Still Beat Emerging-Market Indexes

Donald argues that indexing is useful tactically, but emerging markets remain less informationally efficient than the United States. Fewer analysts and the value of firsthand company research create opportunities for active managers over longer periods.

  • Indexing can serve tactical and short-term needs
  • The median EM manager has historically beaten the index over longer periods
  • Emerging markets have fewer analysts than the United States
  • Regular travel can reveal changing opportunities and risks

“I think it's vital two go and see activities in all of these countries.”

James Donald · 23:08

“in emerging markets, over longer periods of time, the median manager tends to beat the index.”

James Donald · 24:59
#active management#market efficiency#research#indexing
Hot Take54:35

India's Infrastructure Buildout Could Affect Global Growth

India planned to construct roughly two-thirds of its total infrastructure over the following fourteen or fifteen years. Donald presents the scale of that program, alongside Modi's reforms and India's expanding workforce, as a potentially significant driver of worldwide growth.

  • Much of India's infrastructure remained old
  • Two-thirds of total infrastructure was planned for construction
  • The buildout was associated with the Modi government
  • Its scale could materially affect worldwide growth

“The plan is to build something like two thirds of the total infrastructure of the country in the next fourteen or fifteen years.”

James Donald · 55:26

“it may have a significant effect on worldwide growth.”

James Donald · 55:44
#india#infrastructure#modi#global growth

Explainer· 6

Explainer08:16

Why Market Accessibility Now Defines an Emerging Market

Emerging-market classification has shifted away from relying mainly on economic and political development. Index providers increasingly emphasize whether investors can move capital, obtain information, and participate without major restrictions.

  • Classification criteria have changed over time
  • MSCI emphasizes accessibility
  • Capital mobility and information access matter
  • Frontier markets have lower liquidity and more restrictions

“They've moved over time more towards what's easily accessible and M s c I is the biggest index provider in this area, and they're very…”

James Donald · 08:42

“They are much more rudimentary economies and rudimentary markets, um, and they have less liquidity in them.”

James Donald · 09:18
#market classification#msci#accessibility#frontier markets
Explainer11:56

Why Emerging Markets Move in Seven-to-Ten-Year Cycles

Donald links the prior decade of emerging-market underperformance to deflationary pressure and greater economic sensitivity. Emerging-market equities contain many industries whose fortunes depend heavily on global growth, making negative real growth and crises especially damaging.

  • Leadership cycles often last seven to ten years
  • Deflationary pressure hurt emerging markets
  • Emerging markets are more economically sensitive than developed markets
  • Negative real growth and crises are major threats

“I mean, they seem to be often seven to ten year periods that we see this.”

James Donald · 12:27

“I think the the clear enemies of emerging market equities are negative real economic growth and or crises.”

James Donald · 14:45
#market cycles#economic growth#deflation#risk
Explainer18:39

Why Political Risk Can Directly Reprice Emerging Markets

Political developments can affect emerging-market corporations, currencies, and investor protections more directly than political noise often affects US equities. South Africa and Russia illustrate how leadership changes, governance concerns, and state actions can alter an investment case.

  • Political effects vary by situation
  • Leadership changes can move currencies and markets
  • Political action can materially affect corporations
  • Governance risk is especially important in some countries

“certainly there are political effects that we see in emerging markets.”

James Donald · 19:33

“It certainly is a place where you have to take into account political risk because it can have big, big effects on certain corporations”

James Donald · 20:19
#political risk#governance#south africa#russia
Explainer26:29

Four Different Ways Lazard Approaches Emerging-Market Equities

Lazard organizes its emerging-market operation as a collection of specialized boutiques. Its equity menu includes quantitative, relative value, growth at a reasonable price, and core strategies designed to produce different portfolio exposures and return patterns.

  • Lazard has twelve emerging-market teams across asset classes
  • Four distinct equity strategies are offered
  • Portfolio overlap is intentionally limited
  • Investors can choose a style based on their objectives

“We have a quantitative one, we have a relative value one, which is where I spend most of my time. We have a growth at…”

James Donald · 26:54

“The overlap is relatively limited, and they will produce different types of results for investors over time.”

James Donald · 27:29
#investment styles#portfolio strategy#garp#quantitative
Explainer45:26

China's Shift from Maximum Growth to Better Growth

As China's catch-up advantage diminishes, the policy focus is shifting toward diversified, technology-led growth and lower leverage. Reform is complicated because state-owned enterprises retain privileged access to bank capital, sometimes at low rates, limiting ordinary credit discipline.

  • Economic catch-up naturally slows as development advances
  • China did not announce its customary target growth rate
  • Better growth means diversification and modern industries
  • State-owned enterprises retain privileged access to bank capital

“I think there's also a wish in China to have better quality of growth and not just simply higher growth.”

James Donald · 46:57

“state owned enterprises have actual rights to have the capital, often at lower rates”

James Donald · 49:21
#china#economic growth#state enterprises#leverage
Explainer50:16

Why Urbanization Remains Central to China's Development

China's urbanization policy is a decade-spanning effort to move people toward places with stronger education and employment opportunities. Infrastructure supports that migration while helping cities attract factories, investment, and globally competitive companies.

  • Urbanization remains a primary long-term policy
  • Economic and educational opportunities are greater in cities
  • Infrastructure helps attract factories and employment
  • Emerging economies need to plan development in decades

“Urbanization is still at the core of Chinese political thinking.”

James Donald · 50:21

“I think emerging countries have to think in terms of decades for their economic development.”

James Donald · 52:16
#china#urbanization#infrastructure#development

Story· 2

Story38:09

What Made Venezuela Uninvestable

Venezuela became Donald's clearest example of an uninvestable market when the government effectively imposed arbitrary values on publicly listed companies. Inflation, political instability, and the absence of reliable investor protection overwhelmed conventional valuation considerations.

  • Investor protection is a threshold issue
  • The government imposed arbitrary company values
  • Inflation and political instability compounded the risk
  • Donald believed regime change was required for rehabilitation

“The best example of an uninvestable emerging market has really been Venezuela”

James Donald · 38:27

“There was no real protection for investors there”

James Donald · 38:52
#venezuela#investor protection#political risk#nationalization
Story39:52

How Easy Money Sent Greece Back to Emerging-Market Status

Greece moved from emerging to developed status, benefited from fiscal support and unusually cheap borrowing, and later returned to the emerging-market universe. Donald describes rising indebtedness and severe bank loan problems as central obstacles to rehabilitation.

  • Greece previously moved from emerging to developed status
  • Cheap borrowing contributed to rising indebtedness
  • Greece later returned to emerging-market classification
  • Banks faced very high nonperforming loans

“It was an emerging market country, then it joined the EU and essentially got a lot of EU fiscal aid and and low rates and…”

James Donald · 40:25

“It's now back in emerging markets and I would say we're waiting to see if the plans, the economic plans for Greece can rehabilitate the…”

James Donald · 40:46
#greece#eurozone#debt#banks

Tool· 1

Tool28:28

Embed Currency Risk in Equity Targets Instead of Hedging

Currency hedging is common in emerging-market fixed income but less common in Donald's equity portfolios because it is expensive and difficult to time. The equity team instead reflects expected currency and macroeconomic effects in company profitability forecasts and target prices.

  • Fixed-income strategies hedge currencies more often
  • Equity currency hedging can be expensive
  • Hedge timing is difficult
  • Currency risks can be embedded in profitability forecasts and target prices

“It's it's quite expensive and it's quite easy to get the time periods wrong.”

James Donald · 28:54

“We tend to embed it in our target prices UM by analyzing what risks we think the currency or macroeconomic factors in general might mean…”

James Donald · 29:00
#currency hedging#target prices#equities#fixed income

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway13:20

The Weak-Dollar, Strong-EM Relationship

Emerging-market equities tend to move inversely to the US dollar. Although commodities represent a smaller share of the universe than they once did, global growth, currencies, and commodity prices still materially influence returns.

  • EM equities tend to have a negative correlation with the dollar
  • A weak dollar generally supports EM performance
  • Commodities are about fifteen percent of the cited universe
  • EM remains sensitive to global economic growth

“emerging market equities tend to have a natural negative correlation to the dollar and week dollar strong EM week dollars strong EM strong dollar week…”

James Donald · 15:27

“emerging markets tend to have quite a strong correlation with commodity prices.”

James Donald · 15:44
#dollar#currencies#commodities#returns
Takeaway1:05:34

James Donald's Advice for a Career in Asset Management

Donald advises aspiring investors to combine professional and personal interests, adopt a genuinely long-term outlook, and practice constructive self-criticism. He also stresses that active management inevitably includes painful periods requiring process discipline and mental strength.

  • Combine business interests with meaningful personal interests
  • Think long term in a long-term industry
  • Evaluate strengths and weaknesses constructively
  • Expect difficult periods in active management
  • Use a plan and process to endure pain

“The asset managiment business is a long term business, particularly the long only part of it, and you can't really be evaluated properly if you're…”

James Donald · 1:06:39

“Very important. You have a plan, you have a process, and I think to be in this business you have to know how to take…”

James Donald · 1:07:39
#career advice#self-evaluation#resilience#asset management