MMasters in Business
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30 November 2015

Interview With Ken Fisher: Masters in Business (Audio)

6Frameworks
12Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster50:19

Investor Behavior Can Matter More Than Choosing a No-Load Fund

Fisher cites Dalbar studies showing that investors underperform the funds they own because of their own timing. He says load-fund investors sometimes did better than no-load-fund investors not because their funds were superior, but because the fee made them feel locked in while no-load investors traded at poor times.

  • Dalbar studies found investors performed worse than their funds
  • Fisher attributes the gap to moving in and out at bad times
  • Load fees sometimes discouraged harmful trading
  • Holding behavior could outweigh the no-load funds' better underlying performance

“people actually do worse than the funds they invest in by a lot”

Ken Fisher · 50:29

“The flow of funds actually favors the people that don't flow the funds. They just sit”

Ken Fisher · 50:57
#behavior gap#funds#fees#trading

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take28:25

Great Investors Must Expect to Be Wrong Often

Fisher argues that investors are more often wrong than right and that even someone right 70 percent of the time must live with frequent error. He says the crucial capability is accepting wrongness and knowing what to do next, rather than imagining that expertise eliminates mistakes. Barry adds that being wrong is acceptable but staying wrong is not.

  • Fisher says investors are wrong more often than right on balance
  • A 70 percent long-term success rate would still require accepting 30 percent error
  • Refusing to accept error makes correction harder
  • Barry distinguishes being wrong from staying wrong

“you better get darn used to being wrong at least thirty percent of the time.”

Ken Fisher · 29:18

“it's okay to to be wrong, it's not okay to stay wrong.”

Barry Ritholtz · 29:50
#investing#error#humility#risk
Hot Take1:14:19

Technology Lets Wrong Market Views Persist Longer

Looking back over his career, Fisher says he wishes he had understood that sentiment would become more important and durable. He still expects fundamentals to determine the ultimate outcome, but believes technology, blogs, and social media can prolong the market's voting phase before valuation, quality, and growth reassert themselves.

  • Fisher separates fundamental weighing from sentiment voting
  • He believes the voting process now lasts longer
  • Fundamental valuation still determines the eventual outcome in his view
  • He attributes the extended life of mistaken views partly to technology

“Sentiment has become, in my opinion, more important and more enduring, not permanently enduring.”

Ken Fisher · 1:14:45

“Weighing still is the ultimate outcome finally, but it takes longer to get there”

Ken Fisher · 1:14:55
#sentiment#technology#market cycles#valuation

Explainer· 3

Explainer12:50

Why Fisher Investments Hired Graduates and Developed Them Internally

Fisher says he began hiring people straight from college because experienced workers did not want to work for his young firm. As the old corporate career model weakened, he chose to train and retain graduates rather than compete for MBAs who expected to change employers repeatedly. He says most senior people at the firm built their entire adult careers there.

  • Fisher hired graduates because older experienced people would not join him
  • His intended model was to hire, train, and keep people for their careers
  • About half left in the first year
  • Most people at the top had not worked elsewhere

“I wanted to hire kids, train them, keep them forever, and have them never leave.”

Ken Fisher · 14:01

“all pretty much all the people the top firm never worked anywhere else.”

Ken Fisher · 14:11
#hiring#training#retention#culture
Explainer54:30

Investment Firms Cannot Rely on Returns Alone

Fisher argues that investment firms should operate as businesses rather than practices focused narrowly on returns. Drawing on Nucor under Ken Iverson, he says a great firm does not have to be the world's best in every discipline, but it must be excellent across service, pricing, research, HR, and internal finance because that standard shapes culture.

  • Returns remain important but are not the only business discipline
  • Service and convenience affect whether clients stay long enough to receive returns
  • Fisher distinguishes excellence across disciplines from being the best at all of them
  • Cross-functional standards ripple into company culture

“you want to do all of the business disciplines in a very excellent way”

Ken Fisher · 55:29

“You can't be the best at everything, but excellent across the disciplines.”

Ken Fisher · 56:09
#business excellence#culture#financial services#operations
Explainer1:11:59

Why Fisher Says the Price-to-Sales Ratio Became Less Useful

Fisher says he began publishing work on the price-to-sales ratio when little prior literature existed and data screens were expensive. In the 1970s, he paid Goldman Sachs for a one-time mainframe screen of New York Stock Exchange companies. He says the ratio still has value, but its edge diminished as the information and technology became widely available.

  • Fisher says almost no literature on the ratio preceded his work apart from a Graham reference
  • A single exchange-wide screen once required paying a firm with a mainframe
  • Low price-to-sales stocks could expose companies where fear had depressed prices
  • The signal became less valuable once others gained the same information

“You will find no literature on the price sales ratio. Until I started writing on the price sales ratio.”

Ken Fisher · 1:12:12

“It's got value, but not as much, not as much as it had in those days”

Ken Fisher · 1:13:38
#price-to-sales#valuation#information edge#technology

Story· 3

Story04:24

Philip Fisher Taught People to Discover Ideas in Themselves

Ken Fisher describes his father, investor and teacher Philip Fisher, as brilliant but difficult to be around. He says former students often credited Philip with ideas he had not actually told them, because Philip could draw insights out of people and help them see those insights as their own.

  • Philip Fisher taught the graduate investment course at Stanford Business School
  • Students attributed insights to him that Ken says Philip had never held
  • Ken believes his father helped people discover ideas within themselves

“he had an ability for people to see themselves through things that he interacted with them on.”

Ken Fisher · 05:04

“he had an ability to get people to see it in themselves and pull it out of themselves.”

Ken Fisher · 05:20
#mentorship#teaching#philip fisher
Story36:22

Why Fisher Reads Hunting Books as Investing Books

Fisher recommends old hunting books even though he is not a hunter, because he sees parallels with investing. Hunting requires finding the right animals at the right time, using tactics only near the end, and enduring a long pursuit; Fisher maps those ideas to selecting an opportunity set, choosing securities late, and persisting through investment cycles.

  • Hunting with Bow and Arrow illustrates locating the right target before using final tactics
  • Hunting the American Lion emphasizes arduous pursuit and endurance
  • Fisher regards investing as an endurance game

“hunting is a lot like investing.”

Ken Fisher · 37:32

“Pursuing inquires endurance and investing is an endurance game.”

Ken Fisher · 38:31
#books#hunting#investing#endurance
Story58:27

Ken Fisher Built a Parallel Life in Redwood History and Science

Fisher traces his redwood interest to childhood exploration of second-growth forests and later forestry study at Humboldt State University. Although he rejected forestry as a career after a Forest Service summer job, he kept it as a lifelong pursuit, assembling a large collection of nineteenth-century forestry books, excavating mill sites, supporting research, and endowing a redwood ecology chair.

  • Childhood visits to logged redwood forests sparked Fisher's curiosity
  • He studied forestry at Humboldt State University
  • He collected about 3,000 volumes on nineteenth-century forestry
  • He excavated and cataloged 35 mill sites
  • He financed tree science and endowed a chair in redwood forest ecology

“I love the forest, and I decided I wanted to go into forestry.”

Ken Fisher · 59:30

“I got three thousand volumes of nineteenth century for which I believe it's the largest private collection and force history stuff in the world.”

Ken Fisher · 1:01:14
#redwoods#forestry#science#ken fisher

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway06:03

Writing Forces Fisher to Make His Thinking Accountable

Fisher says writing helps clarify his thinking because it forces him to decide what he is willing to put before a million readers. Columns and books create a durable record that readers can challenge years later, making him commit to what he believes.

  • Fisher worked hard to learn writing rather than viewing it as inherited talent
  • Writing forces him to decide what he is prepared to publish
  • A durable published record lets readers challenge him later

“I worked very hard to learn how to write.”

Ken Fisher · 06:10

“the writing forces me to think about what is it that I want a million people to be able to read”

Ken Fisher · 08:18
#writing#thinking#accountability
Takeaway15:13

The Question Fisher Uses to Look Beyond Competitors

Fisher recalls his father's question about what a business is doing that competitors are not doing yet. He says the question kept the idea of leading in his mind, with old Intel and early Charles Schwab serving as examples of firms that repeatedly moved ahead through work others had not done.

  • Philip Fisher framed leadership as doing what competitors had not begun
  • Competitors may follow, but the initiating firm leads
  • Fisher looked to old Intel and early Charles Schwab as models

“what are you doing your competitors aren't doing yet?”

Ken Fisher · 15:36

“Maybe maybe they'll catch up, maybe they won't, but they're not doing it yet, and you're leading.”

Ken Fisher · 15:44
#competition#innovation#leadership
Takeaway52:58

Fisher Says Every CEO Must Spend Time With Customers

Fisher Investments runs client events around the country, including presentation and question sessions, and Fisher says he personally attends about twenty. He argues that direct customer interaction matters for every CEO because leaders who forget the customer lose the business.

  • The firm held roughly seventy client events of one described type each year
  • Fisher personally attended about twenty
  • Other senior leaders also ran events
  • Fisher considers customer contact a CEO responsibility

“I believe that interacting with the clients is important for every CEO in the world”

Ken Fisher · 53:51

“if you forget who the customer is, you lose the bus.”

Ken Fisher · 53:57
#customers#ceo#client service#leadership