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David Nadig14 September 2018

David Nadig Discusses the Future of ETFs (Podcast)

2Frameworks
13Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster1:08:29

A Bad ETF Execution Often Means Bad Trading Hygiene, Not a Broken Fund

Investors can receive shocking executions when they submit market orders for specialized ETFs during volatile conditions. Nadig argues that these incidents usually reflect careless order handling within a chaotic market ecosystem rather than a structural ETF failure.

  • Market orders provide no protection against an unexpected execution price
  • Volatile markets magnify liquidity and spread risks
  • Specialized ETFs may have fragile displayed liquidity
  • Order selection is part of responsible ETF investing

“Most of the horror stories that fill up my mailbox are people who don't have good trading hygiene”

David Nadig · 1:08:47

“And that's not E t F being broken. It's the e t F relying on an ecosystem which is inherently chaotic”

David Nadig · 1:09:08
#etf trading#market orders#liquidity#execution

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take28:50

ETFs Democratize Bad Investment Ideas Along With Good Ones

Niche ETFs can provide legitimate access to narrow speculative themes, but accessibility does not establish suitability. Nadig favors allowing such products while emphasizing investor education over banning investments that could be misused.

  • Niche financial products existed before ETFs
  • ETFs make specialized exposures broadly accessible
  • Retail investors may unknowingly buy leveraged or unsuitable products
  • Education is preferable to prohibiting products solely because misuse is possible

“really almost anything you could want to do you can do in an e t F, whether that's a good idea or not.”

David Nadig · 29:29

“We should focus on investor education”

David Nadig · 29:51
#niche etfs#investor education#risk#speculation
Hot Take36:41

Bitcoin May Be Digital Gold, but It Could Still Be the MySpace Version

Nadig views Bitcoin as a digital variation of gold and compares concerns about its criminal use to historical criticism of physical gold. He finds blockchain technology promising but argues that the current implementation may be an early, replaceable version rather than the eventual winner.

  • Bitcoin shares scarcity and custody questions with gold
  • Physical gold was also criticized as a criminal currency
  • Bitcoin is more portable than substantial physical gold
  • Promising infrastructure does not guarantee the current product wins

“I think, ultimately I think about bitcoin as being a digital gold variant.”

David Nadig · 37:45

“I just think probably I think we're in the MySpace era. I don't think we're in the Facebook era”

David Nadig · 42:17
#bitcoin#gold#blockchain#digital assets
Hot Take50:15

Proxy Voting Could Differentiate Otherwise Identical Index Funds

As fees and tracking differences approach zero, investors may distinguish major index funds by how their managers vote portfolio shares. Nadig expects corporate-governance transparency to become a retail marketing issue rather than remaining primarily an institutional concern.

  • Large passive managers collectively hold substantial voting power
  • Index managers cannot readily sell companies they disagree with
  • Proxy policies can differentiate nearly identical funds
  • State Street used votes to push for greater board diversity

“But what will be different is, well, how does black Rock vote their shares? How does van Car vote their shares?”

David Nadig · 51:54

“I think it's going to become a marketing issue in the next ten years.”

David Nadig · 53:09
#corporate governance#proxy voting#passive investing#esg

Explainer· 6

Explainer03:02

Why ETF Trading Fixes Mutual Funds' Blind Pricing Window

Mutual funds use forward-based pricing, leaving investors uncertain about their execution price until later in the day. ETFs trade intraday, letting buyers evaluate a visible price while also creating a price-discovery mechanism for closed or illiquid underlying markets.

  • Mutual-fund buyers do not know their final execution price in advance
  • ETFs let investors accept or reject a displayed intraday price
  • ETF prices can estimate the value of securities in closed markets
  • That estimate remains a negotiated market price rather than perfect arbitrage value

“It's literally the only financial product that has forward based pricing, which is kind of ridiculous.”

David Nadig · 03:32

“So e t f s not only give you access to those markets that are closed or less liquid, but they give you another price…”

David Nadig · 04:44
#etfs#mutual funds#price discovery#trading
Explainer05:21

How ETF Redemptions Wash Out Embedded Capital Gains

Authorized participants can create and redeem ETF shares through in-kind transfers of securities. This lets a fund hand low-basis shares out to the market and reduce gains that might otherwise be distributed to remaining taxable investors.

  • Portfolio turnover can create taxable gains even in a losing year
  • In-kind redemptions can remove low-basis securities
  • Authorized participants coordinate the creation and redemption process
  • Transparency makes the ETF arbitrage mechanism practical

“They're able to wash out any gains from internal trading.”

David Nadig · 05:52

“It allows in kind transactions to be untaxed, right, and that tax basis then can get washed out”

David Nadig · 07:46
#etfs#taxes#capital gains#authorized participants
Explainer09:27

Why ETF Economies of Scale Push Fees Toward Zero

Large index providers can manage an additional dollar at almost no incremental cost. Their scale allows fees of only a few basis points while creating a formidable barrier for small issuers that must absorb legal, custody, accounting, and recordkeeping costs.

  • Index management has a near-zero marginal cost at scale
  • Large issuers spread fixed expenses across enormous asset bases
  • Small sponsors face substantial launch and maintenance costs
  • Regulatory simplification can lower but not eliminate the scale advantage

“the marginal cost of production in big index shops is so low they can price these products at three four or five eight basis points…”

David Nadig · 10:07

“those big players have that entrenched economy of scale that I think is really tough to compete with”

David Nadig · 11:26
#etfs#fees#economies of scale#asset management
Explainer11:39

How Bond ETFs Helped Replace Traditional Wall Street Bond Desks

Regulation and poor economics caused banks to retreat from inventory-heavy bond dealing while investor demand for fixed income remained. Large firms such as BlackRock and PIMCO increasingly became the natural counterparties for major bond allocations and new issues.

  • Banks reduced bond-desk risk and capital allocation
  • Individual bonds remain difficult and expensive for many investors to trade
  • Bond portfolios create turnover when maintaining target maturities
  • Large asset managers can absorb entire new bond issues

“you had that sort of abandonment of the bond market by traditional players, But at the same time you had lots of folks that still…”

David Nadig · 12:28

“they have become the bond desk for the world.”

David Nadig · 15:02
#bonds#etfs#blackrock#pimco
Explainer22:14

The ETF Rule Turns Regulatory Exemptions Into a Standard Process

Historically, launching an ETF required forming a fund and then requesting exemptions from rules that ordinary mutual funds follow. The proposed ETF rule would standardize those permissions, significantly reducing launch time and legal expense for straightforward products.

  • ETFs historically required exemptive relief from the SEC
  • The exemptions permit exchange trading and special treatment of authorized participants
  • The new rule would incorporate those permissions into standard forms
  • A simple launch could fall from about six months to about two

“there's all these rules that you have to break to be an e t F.”

David Nadig · 23:36

“Right now, it's maybe six months for an easy e t F to come to market. We can probably get that down to two months”

David Nadig · 24:19
#etfs#sec#regulation#fund launches
Explainer35:14

Why Daily Reset Makes Leveraged ETFs Drift From Expectations

Leveraged and inverse ETFs reset their exposure every day, so alternating gains and losses compound asymmetrically. Futures, swaps, and embedded financing costs add further drag, especially when swap pricing is not presented transparently.

  • A 10% rise followed by a 10% fall produces a net loss
  • Daily resets repeatedly apply leverage to a changing base
  • Most leveraged products obtain exposure through derivatives
  • Swap and carry costs can be difficult for investors to observe

“that compounding math up and down is exactly what messes up most of these daily reset, leveraged or inverse products”

David Nadig · 35:48

“they reset their exposure every single gold day, and they're using futures and other products that are not cheap.”

David Nadig · 35:57
#leveraged etfs#compounding#swaps#volatility drag

Story· 1

Story42:48

The Transparent Tech Fund That Launched at the Worst Possible Time

Nadig co-founded Open Fund, an actively managed technology fund that broadcast its trades with unusual transparency. It initially surged and raised substantial capital, but its late-1990s launch exposed it to the technology collapse and taught him the emotional cost of losing other people's money.

  • Open Fund displayed trades ticket by ticket
  • The fund initially outperformed and attracted capital
  • Its strategy centered heavily on trading technology IPOs
  • The collapse became a humbling lesson in active management

“We actually had a camera on our treating floor and broadcast our tickets like ticket by ticket”

David Nadig · 44:47

“until you've sat in the chair of an active manager on a trading desk. You don't quite understand what it's like to lose a lot…”

David Nadig · 45:27
#dotcom bubble#active management#fund failure#transparency

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway47:43

The Internet Thesis Was Right, but the Winners Were Far Fewer Than Expected

The dot-com era correctly anticipated that the internet would transform the economy, but investors underestimated how concentrated the rewards would become. Hundreds of plausible companies disappeared while only a small group captured enormous value, pushing Nadig back toward passive investing.

  • A correct technological thesis can still produce poor investments
  • Industry growth does not distribute gains evenly
  • Even eventual winners experienced severe drawdowns
  • The experience reinforced the appeal of diversified passive exposure

“It was that it would be concentrated in so few winners.”

David Nadig · 48:20

“all I did was turned me into a passive investor again.”

David Nadig · 49:30
#dotcom bubble#technology#concentration#passive investing
Takeaway1:07:28

Pick Up the Phone to Build Relationships That Outlast a Transaction

Nadig argues that modern workers too often default to text and email when a real conversation would create a stronger connection. Speaking directly can turn a one-off exchange into a durable, reciprocal relationship.

  • Digital messages optimize transactions rather than relationships
  • Voice conversations create greater human connection
  • Good phone and in-person conversation is becoming a scarce skill
  • The advice applies across generations, not just to millennials

“The number one thing I could say is pick up the goddamn phone”

David Nadig · 1:07:37

“actually learning how to make and have good conversations on the phone and in person is a dying art and it's not something anybody teaches.”

David Nadig · 1:08:19
#career advice#communication#relationships