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31 January 2020

Christopher Davis Discusses Smart Value Investing

5Frameworks
15Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster30:18

A High-P/E Growth Stock Can Be the Better Value

Davis rejects rigid labels that define value by low multiples or exclude technology. Profitable growth increases intrinsic value, so a company with a lower initial yield can outperform when it reinvests at high incremental returns.

  • Growth is an input into value rather than its opposite
  • A high-P/E company can be cheaper than a low-P/E company
  • Incremental return on equity determines whether growth creates value
  • Industry exclusions can cause value investors to miss major economic shifts

“Growth is a component of value, right, Companies that grow profitably are more valuable.”

Chris Davis · 30:33

“a high PE stock could be a much better value than a low PE stock depending on what the earnings will do over time.”

Chris Davis · 31:20
#value investing#growth investing#valuation#technology

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take27:19

Fourteen Percent While Losing Is Better Than Four Percent While Winning

Davis argues that investors should prioritize absolute wealth creation before benchmark-relative status. An investment firm may prefer outperforming a weak market because that helps its business, but clients are economically better served by a higher absolute return even when it trails the index.

  • Absolute compounding is the primary objective
  • Benchmark outperformance remains a secondary long-term responsibility
  • Career incentives can favor relative returns over client wealth
  • Strong business compounding should eventually support both goals

“We would optimize for building wealth first, out performing second”

Chris Davis · 28:24

“we would choose a all day Job one is to build wealth”

Chris Davis · 27:41
#benchmarking#compounding#alignment#wealth
Hot Take1:23:43

Black Swans Can Be Positive

Davis argues that discussions of unpredictable, high-impact events are biased toward catastrophe. Breakthroughs in biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and other fields can create enormous unexpected benefits, including lower medical costs and longer lives.

  • Unexpected high-impact events are not necessarily negative
  • Human ingenuity has repeatedly improved living standards
  • Medical breakthroughs could produce decades of deflationary benefits
  • Private-company innovation can inform investors even without an investment

“when we talk about black swans, we forget we assume that black swans are negative.”

Chris Davis · 1:24:34

“We assume that's negative. No”

Chris Davis · 1:24:41
#innovation#black swans#biotechnology#optimism

Explainer· 4

Explainer04:10

Why Banking Crises Can Strengthen the Survivors

Davis explains that banking itself does not become obsolete when a credit cycle destroys irresponsible institutions. Industry-wide fear lowers valuations while survivors inherit less competition, more rational behavior, and sometimes stronger regulatory moats.

  • Credit crises eliminate irrational and irresponsible competitors
  • Industry valuations can fall regardless of individual quality
  • Survivors may gain supply, pricing, and regulatory advantages
  • The previous cycle's source of damage may not cause the next crisis

“the irrational, irresponsible players get wiped out, the whole industry valuation tanks.”

Chris Davis · 05:04

“the survivors are actually advantaged by the crisis because now there's less supply, less competition, more rational environment.”

Chris Davis · 05:14
#banking#credit cycles#contrarian investing#financials
Explainer22:03

The Right Active-Passive Choice Depends on Investor Behavior

Davis views passive investing as a healthy answer to expensive closet indexing, but not a universal solution. Investors who cannot tolerate meaningful periods of active underperformance may achieve better behavior with an index, while others remain calmer knowing an aligned manager is responsible.

  • Passive competition removes overpriced mediocre active products
  • Investor behavior is a major determinant of realized return
  • Successful active managers inevitably experience underperformance
  • The best structure is one an investor can hold through difficult periods
  • Low cost is part of fiduciary duty, not the whole of it

“you're getting rid of a lot of overpriced mediocrity.”

Chris Davis · 23:52

“one of the biggest determinants of investor return over time is investor behavior.”

Chris Davis · 24:01
#active investing#passive investing#behavior#fees
Explainer52:48

Why Davis Advisors Launched Transparent Active ETFs

Davis Advisors entered ETFs after a long-standing adviser asked for its existing investment approach in a more suitable vehicle. The firm saw transactional and tax advantages while retaining active management, transparency, low fees, and the same concentrated strategies.

  • Client suitability drove the product decision
  • Active strategies can be delivered through ETFs
  • Operational scale must be large enough for credibility but small enough to limit front-running concerns
  • Low existing fees reduce conflict between mutual-fund and ETF offerings
  • ETFs combine commingled governance with stock-like transaction ease

“I want you for your money management approach, your money management philosophy”

Chris Davis · 53:31

“We put a lot of our own money in them because there is a lot of tax efficiency”

Chris Davis · 56:27
#etfs#active management#tax efficiency#product strategy
Explainer1:21:28

Build a Portfolio Like a Ship That Can Survive Every Weather

Davis uses sailing to explain robust long-term investing. Investors cannot control or predict market winds, but they can adapt, continue making indirect progress, and avoid exposures capable of sinking the portfolio during a storm.

  • External conditions cannot be controlled
  • Progress may require an indirect route
  • Portfolios should survive multiple market environments
  • Resilience must be balanced with forward movement
  • Short-term prediction is less useful than adaptation

“you can't change the direction of the wind. You have to adapt.”

Chris Davis · 1:21:31

“We want to run our portfolio like a ship to survive all different kinds of weather to continue to make progress.”

Chris Davis · 1:21:48
#resilience#portfolio risk#sailing#adaptation

Story· 2

Story07:29

How a Good Sales Premise Became Wells Fargo's Scandal

Wells Fargo's branch-as-store model initially aligned cross-selling with customer convenience and bank profitability. Once customers had enough products, aggressive incentives encouraged employees to cheat, while management's attempts to suppress the emerging problem compounded the damage.

  • A plausible model can become dangerous when pushed too far
  • Sales incentives encouraged unauthorized accounts
  • Management underreaction turned misconduct into a prolonged crisis
  • Companies can eventually learn when leadership and incentives change

“you're get in more trouble with a good premise than a bad premise.”

Chris Davis · 08:14

“it's not what you do that gets you in trouble, it's what you do to cover up what you do that gets you in trouble.”

Chris Davis · 09:47
#wells fargo#incentives#ethics#management
Story1:01:22

The Copycat Account That Won Because It Never Sold

Investor Bob Kirby discovered that a client's husband had copied every stock purchase made for his wife. The husband's account performed better because he kept adding from income and never sold, while the managed account repeatedly trimmed winners to fund laggards.

  • The husband copied purchases from trade confirmations
  • Regular contributions steadily increased his positions
  • Never selling allowed exceptional winners to compound
  • Portfolio rebalancing can cut winners and subsidize weaker holdings
  • Sale decisions may be more damaging than purchase mistakes

“the husband's account had meaningfully outperformed. Why well, because the husband never sold anything”

Chris Davis · 1:02:08

“what we call cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”

Chris Davis · 1:02:25
#selling#compounding#portfolio turnover#behavior

Tool· 1

Tool40:03

Use Annual Letters to Study Rational Capital Allocators

Davis recommends reading Jamie Dimon's and Jeff Bezos's annual reports every year. Their decision to write the letters themselves provides evidence about organizational culture, while the content reveals how exceptional capital allocators reason over long horizons.

  • Read primary communications from business leaders
  • Authorship itself can reveal cultural priorities
  • Look for rationality, modesty, drive, and long-term orientation
  • Compare leadership language across different industries

“they should read Jamie Diamonds and your reports every year, and they should read Jeff bezos is in your reports every year.”

Chris Davis · 40:07

“Both men write their own annual reports, which alone tells you something about the culture of the place.”

Chris Davis · 40:15
#shareholder letters#leadership#capital allocation#research

Takeaway· 5

Takeaway16:33

Why the Portfolio Manager Must Be the Lead Analyst

Davis rejects a hierarchy in which senior decision-makers rely on research assembled entirely by junior staff. His portfolio managers participate directly in company research alongside analysts, preserving accountability for the evidence behind every holding.

  • Decision-makers should understand the primary research
  • Junior analysts can perform excellent legwork without owning the final judgment
  • Portfolio managers work as fellow travelers with analysts
  • Concentrated portfolios make deep direct knowledge practical

“the portfolio manager has to be the lead analyst on every company we own.”

Chris Davis · 16:50

“the portfolio manager has to be a fellow traveler on the research process with the analyst.”

Chris Davis · 17:38
#portfolio management#research#team design#accountability
Takeaway18:03

The Selectivity Advantage of Owning One Company in Ten

A focused active manager can reject average businesses rather than representing the entire market. Davis compares the advantage to a selective college or employer that can choose only applicants with extraordinary qualities.

  • Davis portfolios own roughly one in ten S&P 500 companies
  • A low acceptance rate permits unusually high standards
  • Concentration creates an advantage only when paired with deep research
  • Active management should look meaningfully different from its benchmark

“we only buy one out of ten names in the SNP five hundred”

Chris Davis · 18:03

“we think selectivity is a huge advantage in active management”

Chris Davis · 18:24
#active management#concentration#stock selection
Takeaway51:39

Why Investing Rewards Intellectual Wandering

Davis describes investing as an unusually broad field in which nearly every subject can become relevant. When one research thread ends, another can begin, creating a career built around continuous learning rather than repetitive production.

  • Investing makes diverse subjects economically relevant
  • Research can move freely between industries and disciplines
  • Constant learning is part of the work rather than a diversion
  • Curiosity helps investors recognize changes outside familiar categories

“one of the great things about investing is it's wonderful to be able to intellectually wander.”

Chris Davis · 51:39

“There's something about this constant learning, constant improvement, constant wandering process that's really delightful about it.”

Chris Davis · 52:06
#curiosity#learning#investing#research
Takeaway1:05:53

Certainty, Not Doubt, Is the Opposite of Faith

A bishop challenged Davis's assumption that doubt opposes faith. The resulting distinction also applies to investing and politics: courage requires fear, faith requires doubt, and absolute certainty can be more dangerous than acknowledged uncertainty.

  • Doubt is necessary for faith
  • Fear is necessary for courage
  • Certainty suppresses humility and inquiry
  • Difficult choices should feel difficult rather than obvious

“You need doubt to have faith in the same way you need fear to have courage.”

Chris Davis · 1:06:16

“Certainty is the opposite of faith.”

Chris Davis · 1:06:31
#uncertainty#faith#courage#humility
Takeaway1:26:28

Career Advice: Choose the Teacher, Not the Cool Description

Davis advises graduates to enter finance because they find its stewardship and puzzles meaningful, not because they expect excess pay. He also warns that fashionable job descriptions can hide poor learning environments, while an excellent boss can make an unglamorous subject fascinating.

  • Choose finance for meaningful work rather than compensation
  • Do not assume an ordinary-sounding field is uninteresting
  • Select a boss for teaching quality
  • Optimize early career choices for learning
  • Fashionable descriptions can distract from substantive opportunities

“you better do it because there's something about it that you find meaningful rather than because you think you're gonna make a lot of money.”

Chris Davis · 1:26:36

“choose your boss.”

Chris Davis · 1:27:39
#careers#mentorship#finance#learning