Although public vehicles and crowdfunding are increasing access, Zick argues that farmland remains too fragmented and inefficient for cheap passive exposure. Outcomes depend heavily on acquisition discipline, tenant quality, local knowledge, and active management, making manager selection more consequential than simple asset allocation.

Farmland pricing remains locally inefficient
More capital and public vehicles are entering the market
Passive exposure may deliver expensive beta
Active managers can still generate acquisition and operating alpha
Manager selection remains central

“there's no cheap beta, there'll be a lot of expensive beta out there.”
Brandon Zick · 1:01:04

“There's no vanguard for a passive indexing fall.”
Brandon Zick · 1:01:16

#passive-investing#alpha#farmland#asset-allocation

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take42:05

AI Data Centers Can Reprice Farmland by More Than Tenfold

Midwestern farmland near power, natural gas, fiber, water, and transport infrastructure is becoming a target for large data centers. Zick contrasts an average portfolio cost near $8,000 per acre with reported data-center land prices of $100,000 to $300,000 per acre, while emphasizing that only rare sites satisfy every infrastructure constraint.

AI infrastructure is driving Midwestern development
Large contiguous tracts are especially attractive
Power, water, fiber, and natural gas are gating factors
Data-center buyers can pay far above agricultural value
Infrastructure capacity makes suitable sites scarce

“I think our average cost per acre across our portfolio is about eight thousand dollars.”
Brandon Zick · 42:35

“You see data center prices anywhere from one hundred to three hundred thousand dollars”
Brandon Zick · 42:41

#data-centers#ai#infrastructure#land

Hot Take44:23

The Energy Transition Is Really an Energy Expansion

Zick contends that growing electricity demand cannot be satisfied by replacing one source with another. He points to continued record use of coal, wood, oil, and natural gas and argues that society will require more generation from nearly every source, potentially including modular nuclear reactors for data centers.

Electricity demand is growing rapidly
Renewables alone may not supply continuous industrial loads
Most historical energy sources remain at record consumption
Nuclear declined primarily because of regulation and fear
Local opposition conflicts with demand for reliable power

“there's no energy transition that whatever happens is we need more of everything.”
Brandon Zick · 46:25

“they all turn on their lights.”
Brandon Zick · 45:39

#energy#nuclear#electricity#data-centers

Explainer· 5

Explainer12:07

Why Farmland Has Never Had a Full Institutional Roll-Up

Unlike timber and conventional commercial real estate, U.S. farmland remains dispersed among farmers, estates, trusts, and nonfarming heirs. Institutional owners hold only a small share, while virtually every farmable property is already occupied, making aggregation slow and transaction-intensive.

Active family farmers own about 40% of Midwestern farmland
Institutional investors own roughly 3%
U.S. farmland has almost no vacancy
Development and conservation reduce available acreage
Fragmented ownership limits large institutional transactions

“Institutional investors today own about three percent”
Brandon Zick · 13:25

“Every farm that can be farmed is farmed every year.”
Brandon Zick · 14:07

#farmland#ownership#institutions#scarcity

Explainer16:15

Why Inheritance and Taxes Often Determine When Farms Sell

Many farms remain family assets long after descendants stop operating them. Owners often postpone a sale until a death produces a stepped-up tax basis, while proposed changes to capital-gains or estate taxes can trigger bursts of transactions independent of agricultural conditions.

Nonfarming heirs may retain land for generations
A historic cost basis can create a large taxable gain
A step-up in basis can unlock a sale
Tax-policy changes can accelerate transaction timing

“taxes drive a lot of behavior in every industry.”
Brandon Zick · 16:26

“people usually wait to get that step up in basis and then they're saying, well, now is the time we're going to sell”
Brandon Zick · 16:37

#taxes#inheritance#farmland#estate-planning

Explainer19:04

Row Crops Offer Optionality That Orchards Cannot

Annual row-crop land can rotate among crops, so the primary asset is adaptable soil. Permanent-crop investments include the trees or vines themselves, exposing owners to a specific crop and sometimes a variety that consumer preferences can render less valuable.

Row crops are replanted and can be rotated annually
Permanent crops include grapes, almonds, pistachios, and apples
Permanent plantings concentrate crop and variety risk
Row-crop ownership centers on land rather than biological assets

“our asset is dirt, and there's optionality around what you can plant there.”
Brandon Zick · 19:34

“if you had red delicious apples and they're out of favor and people want honeycrisp apples, then while you own apples, you don't own the…”
Brandon Zick · 19:50

#row-crops#permanent-crops#optionality#agriculture

Explainer20:38

Farmland Returns Combine Inflation With Productivity Gains

Zick argues that long-term land appreciation reflects inflation plus the value of agricultural productivity improvements. New seed genetics, fertilizer, and equipment can increase yield, with active landowners capturing part of that improvement through rent and property value.

Chicago Fed data indicates long-run appreciation near 6% annually
Inflation raises the nominal value of the underlying land
Technology increases output per acre
Active owners can translate productivity into rent
Farmland can behave like an inflation-linked asset

“it's really just inflation plus gains and productivity.”
Brandon Zick · 21:01

“this is an investment that's built for inflationary environments.”
Brandon Zick · 22:38

#inflation#productivity#returns#farmland

Explainer32:21

Why a Three-Year Farm Lease Counts as Long Term

Most row-crop leases in the portfolio last about three years because commodity markets provide enough forward visibility for both sides to agree on rent. This is unusually long in a market where many farmers repeatedly renew one-year leases, while specialty crops may justify terms of eight to ten years.

Three years is the predominant institutional row-crop term
Commodity futures provide forward price visibility
Private landlords often prefer one-year leases to preserve sale flexibility
Specialty crops need longer rotations and planning
Higher specialty-crop rents can justify longer leases

“we try to target three to five year leases, and I'd say three is the overwhelming majority.”
Brandon Zick · 32:42

“They actually view a three year lease as a long term lease.”
Brandon Zick · 33:49

#leases#farm-tenants#row-crops#specialty-crops

Tool· 1

Tool57:34

How Precision Agriculture Matches Every Seed to the Soil

Modern operators combine satellite maps, physical probes, variable-rate equipment, connected irrigation, weather forecasts, and machine learning. Instead of applying identical seed and fertilizer rates across a heterogeneous field, they vary inputs by soil quality to reduce expense and runoff while preserving yield.

Fields can contain many distinct soil types
Satellite data should be checked with physical probes
Variable-rate equipment adjusts seed and fertilizer by location
Connected pivots eliminate repeated inspection drives
Moisture sensors and forecasts prevent unnecessary irrigation

“they can use variable rate applications of fertilizer and seeds.”
Brandon Zick · 58:20

“Now that farmer can control everything from his or her iPhone”
Brandon Zick · 59:22

#precision-agriculture#technology#irrigation#soil

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway29:03

Why an Evergreen Fund Better Matches Farmland

A conventional private-equity fund may be forced to sell after eight or ten years, even though tenants and long-duration investors think in decades. An evergreen structure aligns patient ownership with long leases, minimizes forced churn, and preserves long-term property optionality.

Farm tenants often plan 10 to 30 years ahead
Forced sales create transaction costs
Endowments, insurers, and trusts have long-duration objectives
Long ownership preserves emerging uses and development options

“He decided that an evergreen fund really fit the asset class better”
Brandon Zick · 29:20

“having this long dated asset where you're not forced to churn or forced to have these transaction cost is really important.”
Brandon Zick · 29:54

#evergreen-funds#fund-structure#farmland#duration

Takeaway1:05:50

A Genuine Network Creates Career Paths You Cannot Predict

Zick credits an introduction through Notre Dame's endowment with redirecting him toward Ceres Partners. His advice is to build relationships genuinely, ask informed questions, and keep pulling promising threads because a routine reference request can reveal an entirely different opportunity.

Technical excellence alone rarely differentiates a career
Networking must be genuine rather than transactional
Informational conversations can redirect a job search
Shared backgrounds can reveal overlooked career niches
Helping others sustains the network over time

“building the network is probably the most important thing you can ever do”
Brandon Zick · 1:05:50

“sometimes you can pull on a thread and you won't know where it'll go.”
Brandon Zick · 1:06:49

#networking#careers#relationships#investing

Frameworks in this episode

Active Farmland Value-Add Underwriting

Good Soil, Good Water Farmland Risk Screen

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 1

Why Farmland Still Has No Vanguard-Style Index

◆Hot Take· 2