Extreme luxury asking prices can generate headlines and create the appearance of a much more valuable asset. When the property later sells near its real value, the reported discount is misleading because the original asking price was never a valid basis for value.

Wild luxury prices became a widespread marketing tactic during the pandemic boom.
Publicity can make an unsupported asking price feel like an asset valuation.
A dramatic discount from an invented price does not prove the buyer captured equivalent value.
The tactic became less applicable after the pandemic-era housing boom cooled.

“It almost becomes your asset. It's like a ninety million dollar asset when it's really only worth twenty five million.”
Jonathan Miller · 08:40

“But it was never worth that to begin with. That's not the basis for value.”
Jonathan Miller · 09:00

#luxury real estate#anchoring#property valuation#marketing

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take12:06

Why Saving the Broker Commission May Cost a FSBO Seller Elsewhere

For-sale-by-owner transactions avoid a listing broker's commission, but Miller argues that the trade can reduce market exposure and leave an amateur seller negotiating directly with professionals. Unvetted visitors and the absence of an intermediary add further practical risks.

FSBO listings may receive less exposure.
Most homeowners are not professional negotiators.
A broker provides a buffer between the seller and prospective buyers.
FSBO represents only a small share of transactions and is not broadly accepted.

“I'm very skeptical of the FISBO approach.”
Jonathan Miller · 12:31

“It certainly happens. It's probably four or five percent of transactions.”
Jonathan Miller · 12:37

#fsbo#commissions#negotiation#home sales

Explainer· 3

Explainer01:35

Why Higher Mortgage Rates Are Keeping Homes Off the Market

Rapidly rising mortgage rates have discouraged owners with low fixed-rate loans from selling and becoming buyers again. Inventory therefore remains constrained until life events such as relocation, retirement, or family growth outweigh the cost of taking a much higher new mortgage.

Many potential sellers are waiting for uncertainty to clear.
Owners with three-percent mortgages resist replacing them with rates around seven and a half percent.
Major life changes eventually force some rate-locked owners to move.
Restricted inventory supports seller leverage despite weaker affordability.

“The challenge is that inventory is missing from the market”
Jonathan Miller · 01:35

“the seller that's locked in on a three percent thirty year fixed is reluctant to become a buyer at seven and a half percent”
Jonathan Miller · 02:04

#mortgages#housing inventory#interest rates#housing market

Explainer02:53

Why Sellers Can Remain 12 to 24 Months Behind the Market

Sellers often adjust to changing market conditions more slowly than buyers because accepting a lower valuation feels like surrendering money. Miller compares the adjustment to a mourning or grieving process that must occur before owners feel comfortable pricing within reason.

Sellers can remain twelve to twenty-four months behind current conditions.
Emotional attachment and the endowment effect inflate perceived value.
Owners need time to accept that a former market peak is gone.
Delayed acceptance can turn into repeated price cuts that chase the market downward.

“sellers are usually the last one to get the memo”
Jonathan Miller · 03:16

“It's almost a morning or griefing process where they have to go through it to feel they're not giving something away”
Jonathan Miller · 03:59

#seller psychology#endowment effect#market cycles#behavioral finance

Explainer13:04

The Housing Market's Two-Hump Seasonal Pattern

Housing activity tends to form a large spring peak and a smaller fall peak, with quieter winter conditions. Yet lower seasonal competition also comes with fewer buyers and less inventory, so Miller generally discourages trying to time an ordinary sale precisely.

Spring usually produces the year's largest activity peak.
Fall produces a smaller secondary peak.
Winter has less competition but also reduced activity and inventory.
Timing the season is less important than sellers often assume.

“I always see housing markets as a two hump camel.”
Jonathan Miller · 13:27

“You can try to time it, I don't recommend it.”
Jonathan Miller · 13:35

#seasonality#market timing#spring market#home sales

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway10:29

Use an Agent as an Objective Buffer Against Seller Bias

An experienced agent can present external evidence about value and separate the seller's personal attachment from market reality. The agent also provides professional representation between the owner and buyers, whose interests and negotiators may otherwise bear directly on an inexperienced seller.

Sellers know their homes intimately but not necessarily their market value.
A useful agent should explain the evidence supporting a valuation.
External advice counters emotional and needs-based pricing.
Professional intermediation can improve negotiation and transaction handling.

“the number one thing is to listen to the agent.”
Jonathan Miller · 10:37

“you really need an objective third party to make a presentation on why they think it is worth what it's worth”
Jonathan Miller · 10:56

#real estate agents#negotiation#seller bias#representation

Takeaway13:39

List a Vacation Home Just Before the Spring Market Wakes Up

Vacation properties can benefit from appearing shortly before seasonal buyers become active. For a summer destination such as the Hamptons, Miller suggests listing after the Super Bowl so the property is among the first options buyers inspect ahead of spring.

Seasonal buyers often begin searching before the desired occupancy period.
Listing shortly before spring can secure early attention.
Post-Super Bowl timing is a practical marker for summer vacation markets.
Beyond gaining an early look, exact timing matters relatively little.

“Probably just a little bit before spring really kicks in post super Bowl”
Jonathan Miller · 13:52

“you're one of the first looks in the market”
Jonathan Miller · 13:59

#vacation homes#listing timing#hamptons#seasonal demand

Frameworks in this episode

Buyer-Envisioning Home Staging

Market-Synced Home Pricing

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 1

A $90 Million Asking Price Does Not Make a $25 Million Home More Valuable

◆Hot Take· 1