Most Alternative-Investment Outcomes Are Too Boring for Headlines
Public coverage emphasizes spectacular gains and dramatic failures, distorting perceptions of alternatives. Outside venture capital, much of the real experience lies in ordinary middle outcomes, including private-credit portfolios that may remain profitable despite some defaults.
- News coverage selects extreme outcomes
- Venture capital is structurally built around large winners and failures
- Hedge funds are generally less dramatic than headlines imply
- Private credit can absorb defaults while still producing acceptable returns
- The typical result is often less newsworthy than the tail events
“All the action happens in the middle.”
“you'll read about defaults but you probably won't read that the returns are just fine even with the defaults.”