03 June 2026

At The Money: Grab Your Summer Rental Soon!!

1Frameworks

9Insights

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Rent Before You Buy a Second Home

Test a vacation market through real life before committing to a purchase

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster07:12

Why Vacation Rentals Are Not a Leading Economic Indicator

Miller rejects the idea that summer-rental demand independently predicts the economy. He argues that it is downstream of more useful indicators such as compensation, bonuses, and financial-market performance.

Vacation rentals are an extension of existing consumer strength
Demand sources provide better economic signals than rental activity itself
Strong bonus seasons support premium vacation markets
Available inventory shows that elevated compensation does not guarantee a sellout

“I don't see it as an economic indicator, because the the where the demand is emanating from is probably already the economic indicator to focus…”
Jonathan Miller · 07:33

“This is just an extension of it, as opposed to sort of its own independent uh, sort of you know, telegraphing what where they where…”
Jonathan Miller · 07:43

#economic indicators#luxury goods#bonuses#consumption

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take03:10

The Amazonification of Summer-Rental Demand

Consumers increasingly expect to secure vacation properties on demand, just as they order everyday goods through a phone. That behavioral change has pushed meaningful rental activity beyond traditional booking deadlines such as February and Memorial Day.

Consumers have become comfortable booking valuable purchases at the last minute
Traditional seasonal booking deadlines have weakened
Post-Memorial Day traffic now matters in markets that once considered the season settled
Miller views the shift as structural rather than temporary

“you want a summer rental, you just open your iPhone and you you know, start looking at it”
Jonathan Miller · 03:35

“I think orientation towards last minute is sort of a structural change. It's going to be with us indefinitely.”
Jonathan Miller · 04:39

#consumer behavior#on demand#rentals#travel

Explainer· 5

Explainer01:18

What Summer Rentals Reveal About Consumer Spending

Jonathan Miller characterizes vacation rentals as discretionary consumption whose strength follows the financial health of their source markets. He recalls seeing hotel occupancy in Rehoboth Beach fluctuate directly with economic conditions in Washington, D.C.

Vacation rentals behave like discretionary luxury consumption
Demand strengthens when the relevant source economy is healthy
Local vacation markets can reflect prosperity in nearby metropolitan areas

“when the economy's doing well, they see this beach rentals as you know, another commodity that they can buy.”
Jonathan Miller · 01:27

“You could see it fluctuate with depending on how well the economy was doing in DC itself. It was quite direct.”
Jonathan Miller · 01:55

#consumer spending#vacation rentals#economy#real estate

Explainer05:46

High Rents Without the Pandemic-Era Frenzy

The summer-rental market remains expensive, but prices and activity are moving back toward pre-pandemic patterns. Inventory is available and likely to be absorbed, yet the bidding intensity and record pricing of recent years have receded.

Rents remain high but are below record levels
The market has inventory without being weak
Activity is normalizing rather than collapsing
Pandemic property purchases created a new population of potential landlords

“rents are still on the high side, but not at record levels, but rents are returning to pre pandemic levels.”
Jonathan Miller · 06:37

“It's not a weak market. It's more it's normalizing, I think is a fair description.”
Jonathan Miller · 08:32

#rents#normalization#inventory#housing

Explainer08:38

The K-Shaped Split in Second-Home Demand

Vacation-property demand is skewing toward affluent consumers who rely less on mortgage financing and benefit more from financial-market performance. More modest second-home segments face greater pressure from elevated interest rates and reduced affordability.

The upper half of the market is outperforming the lower half
Affluent buyers are less dependent on mortgage rates
Financial-market performance supports higher-end demand
Modestly priced second homes have lost some of their former buyer base

“I call it the upper half is faring better than the lower half, only because of less reliance on interest rates and also maybe more…”
Jonathan Miller · 09:14

“you're seeing this, you know, activity skewing a little bit higher than sort of the middle of the market.”
Jonathan Miller · 11:02

#inequality#second homes#interest rates#luxury

Explainer12:48

How Higher Mortgage Rates Can Push Vacation Rents Up

Higher borrowing costs can affect renters as well as buyers. Miller argues that would-be second-home sellers may rent their properties instead of selling at an unattractive price, while recurring tenant arrangements can reduce available inventory and support rents.

Mortgage rates influence both purchase and rental affordability
Owners may rent rather than sell when uncertain about achieving their target price
Repeat seasonal tenants can remove properties from open inventory
Reduced rental supply can stabilize or raise prices

“the higher the interest rates, the higher the rent is the way I look at it.”
Jonathan Miller · 13:10

“that reduces inventory, which raises or pushes put some at least stabilizing or higher price pressure on rents.”
Jonathan Miller · 13:35

#mortgage rates#rents#inventory#affordability

Explainer17:54

COVID Permanently Extended Second-Home Use

Remote work increased the practical usefulness of second homes, while app-like purchasing behavior made demand less predictable and more last-minute. The market retains a baseline of demand, but that demand is increasingly concentrated among wealthier consumers.

Zoom and remote work extended how often owners can use second homes
Last-minute booking behavior weakens traditional forecasting patterns
Second-home demand declines with the economy but does not simply switch off
Affluent demand leaves a gap in the modest-price segment

“I think structurally COVID has changed and probably extended the use of second homes because of things like Zoom.”
Jonathan Miller · 18:23

“The weaker the economy, the weaker the demand for second home markets. But they don't flip on and off. There's still a base level of…”
Jonathan Miller · 19:00

#covid#remote work#second homes#forecasting

Story· 1

Story15:34

The Construction Boom Behind the Hamptons Trade Parade

Demand for large renovations and replacement homes has filled the Hamptons with contractors commuting from distant, more affordable areas. The resulting flow of tradespeople creates severe daily congestion and shapes how residents schedule travel.

Wall Street compensation has helped finance heavy construction demand
Turnkey homes sell while outdated properties may be demolished and replaced
Contractors cannot generally afford to live near the projects
Long commutes produce predictable waves of traffic

“they call it the trade parade, right, all the trades coming in early in the morning and then leaving, you know, sort of before a…”
Jonathan Miller · 16:46

“there's so much demand for their services and they can't afford to live there, so they're coming from you know, a good distance away.”
Jonathan Miller · 17:40

#construction#hamptons#labor#housing costs

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway09:35

Vacation Markets Are Active Across the US—But Not Frenzied

Miller sees broadly similar conditions across regional vacation markets, including mountain, lake, and coastal destinations. Demand remains active despite economic uncertainty, but pricing and competition are calmer than during the pandemic boom.

Regional vacation demand follows established links to nearby source markets
Economic uncertainty has not eliminated second-home activity
Pricing is below recent peaks
The national pattern is active demand without extreme competition

“across the US it is not nearly or it's not really frenzied at all. It's just active.”
Jonathan Miller · 12:25

“Pricing is not as high as it's been, but it's but you're still you know, a fair amount of activity.”
Jonathan Miller · 12:29

#regional markets#second homes#pricing#demand