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26 November 2024

At the Money: Crypto Curious

2Frameworks
10Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take07:33

DeFi Is Converging With Traditional Finance, Not Disappearing

Ritholtz argues that crypto has been pulled into the financial system despite its decentralization narrative. Hogan reframes this as two-way convergence: crypto enters regulated products while traditional firms issue assets on public blockchains.

  • DeFi targets slow, costly, heavily intermediated finance.
  • Crypto ETFs bring blockchain assets onto traditional rails.
  • Traditional institutions are placing money-market products on public blockchains.
  • Hogan anticipates a more significant DeFi 2.0.

“But of course the two systems have to come together, and you're seeing it.”

Matt Hogan · 08:16

“I think there'll be a DeFi two point zero that is much more significant.”

Matt Hogan · 08:38
#defi#blockchain#tradfi#convergence
Hot Take16:15

Bitcoin's Bull Case Is New Demand Meeting Fixed Supply

Hogan frames Bitcoin as a scarce commodity whose supply cannot expand in response to higher prices. His optimism rests on potential demand from institutions, corporations, and governments meeting a preprogrammed supply schedule.

  • Institutional investors are emerging as a new demand source.
  • Corporations have begun acquiring Bitcoin.
  • Government acquisition could add significant demand.
  • Unlike conventional commodities, Bitcoin production cannot rise when demand rises.
  • The demand thesis remains uncertain rather than guaranteed.

“The supply is literally fixed, it's pre programmed.”

Matt Hogan · 16:53

“there's a lot more demand coming online and limited new supply coming online.”

Matt Hogan · 17:03
#bitcoin#supply-demand#institutions#commodities

Explainer· 4

Explainer02:36

What Bitcoin ETFs Change for Retail Investors

Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to obtain exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts while professional institutions handle custody and trading. The structure reduces operational complexity but does not eliminate Bitcoin's price risk.

  • ETFs provide brokerage-account access to Bitcoin.
  • Regulated custodians hold the underlying assets.
  • Insurance and institutional trading infrastructure can reduce operational risk.
  • The fund structure removes the need for personal wallet management.

“Retail investors today can get the same sort of setup that the largest institutions in the world were getting crypto a year or two ago.”

Matt Hogan · 02:52

“The ETFs have sort of taken that complexity away and made it cheap and safe to own it.”

Matt Hogan · 03:18
#bitcoin#etfs#custody#retail-investing
Explainer05:23

How Regulated Funds Wrap Unregulated Crypto Assets

The underlying crypto assets may not be regulated like securities, but ETFs, advisers, broker-dealers, and futures products operate under established oversight. Investors therefore receive structural protections from multiple regulators even though those protections do not extend identically to the coins themselves.

  • The SEC oversees registered fund products.
  • The CFTC covers products holding futures contracts.
  • FINRA oversees broker-dealer activity and reviews distribution materials.
  • Regulated wrappers offer protections absent from offshore exchanges.

“even though the crypto assets aren't, the funds that we offer, the ETFs that we offer are regulated and passed through the SEC.”

Matt Hogan · 05:27

“It's an alphabet soup of regulators.”

Matt Hogan · 05:58
#regulation#etfs#investor-protection
Explainer06:52

The Traditional Financial Stack Behind a Bitcoin ETF

A Bitcoin ETF relies on many of the same institutional rails as a conventional equity fund. Qualified custody, major auditors, and established administrators provide familiar layers of control and accountability.

  • Qualified custodians secure the crypto assets.
  • Big Four firms audit fund operations.
  • Established banks provide fund administration.
  • The participant stack resembles that of a traditional equity ETF.

“The funds are audited by Big four auditors in our case it's KPMG.”

Matt Hogan · 07:07

“These are trusted rails that.”

Matt Hogan · 07:25
#custody#audit#fund-administration#bitcoin
Explainer14:16

What the Bitcoin Halving Actually Changes

Bitcoin issuance began at zero and progresses toward a fixed limit of 21 million coins. Roughly every four years, new issuance is cut in half, reducing the flow of fresh supply available to meet demand.

  • Bitcoin's eventual supply is capped at 21 million.
  • New coins enter circulation gradually.
  • The issuance rate falls by half approximately every four years.
  • Lower new supply can support price if demand remains steady or rises.
  • The halving schedule is known in advance.

“What the Having refers to Barry is that every four years the amount of bitcoin that's issued falls in half”

Matt Hogan · 14:32

“In the end, bitcoin's price is set by supply and demand.”

Matt Hogan · 14:51
#bitcoin#halving#supply

Story· 1

Story03:48

ETFs Were Once Treated Like Crypto Is Today

Hogan recalls that ETFs were once portrayed as disruptive and dangerous despite their lower costs, tax efficiency, and ease of use. He sees a similar path for crypto as prominent financial institutions move from hostility to adoption.

  • ETFs were initially viewed as risky financial innovations.
  • Practical advantages eventually drove mainstream ETF adoption.
  • Institutional attitudes toward Bitcoin have changed dramatically.
  • Crypto is increasingly being packaged inside familiar financial products.

“The Financial Times called them weapons of mass destruction.”

Matt Hogan · 04:07

“A few years ago Larry Fink called bitcoin an index of money laundering. Today he's talking about it transforming the world of currency.”

Matt Hogan · 04:28
#etfs#adoption#financial-innovation

Q&A· 1

Q&A12:47

Bitcoin, Ether, or a Broader Crypto Index?

For investors seeking simple exposure, Hogan suggests that Bitcoin and Ether cover the two largest assets and lead their respective areas. Broader index funds increase diversification but may use closed-end structures that introduce premiums, discounts, and additional volatility.

  • Spot ETF access was limited to Bitcoin and Ether in the discussion.
  • A two-to-one Bitcoin-to-Ether mix offers simple broad exposure.
  • Broader index products can cover more assets.
  • Closed-end wrappers may trade above or below their underlying value.
  • Leveraged Bitcoin is discouraged because Bitcoin is already highly volatile.

“I wouldn't go two x levered bitcoin.”

Matt Hogan · 13:13

“that rapper is more like a closed end fund, so it can trade it premiums and discounts, and you have to be aware that you…”

Matt Hogan · 13:45
#bitcoin#ethereum#index-funds#closed-end-funds

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway01:31

Crypto Access Has Moved Beyond Passwords and Personal Wallets

Owning crypto once required investors to manage secret passwords and unfamiliar infrastructure themselves. Hogan argues that modern tools now provide easier, more secure access, much as internet usability improved over time.

  • Early crypto access imposed significant technical burdens.
  • Lost passwords could permanently destroy access to valuable assets.
  • Modern investment tools shift complexity away from retail investors.

“It's now easy to get high quality access and secure access to crypto if you use the right tools.”

Matt Hogan · 02:02
#crypto#custody#access
Takeaway09:01

Why an Index Investor Diversifies Across Crypto Winners

Hogan compares crypto with earlier technology markets where eventual winners were difficult to identify in advance. He favors diversification for investors who want exposure beyond a Bitcoin-only monetary thesis.

  • Early disruptive markets make winner selection difficult.
  • Past technology leaders such as Betamax and BlackBerry did not endure.
  • Bitcoin-only investors emphasize crypto's monetary use case.
  • Diversification reduces dependence on one predicted winner.

“It's hard to know exactly how this market will turn out in the future.”

Matt Hogan · 09:12

“I think taking a diversified approach to this market is probably a sensible approach for many investors.”

Matt Hogan · 09:19
#diversification#indexing#crypto